The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2023, according to new forecasts by World Trade Organization (WTO) economists published on Wednesday 5 April. This represents a decline in the growth of trade in goods from 2.7% in 2022.
The slowdown is due to the effects of the war in Ukraine, high inflation, tighter monetary policy and uncertainty in financial markets, according to the WTO. However, the figures are higher than the estimate made in October 2022 (1.0% growth), due to the relaxation of Covid-19 controls in China.
WTO Director Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on members to engage in multilateral cooperation: “It is all the more important that governments avoid trade fragmentation and refrain from creating barriers to trade”.
WTO experts expect trade growth to rebound to 3.2% in 2024, but with high uncertainties due to downside risks.
To see the WTO figures: https://aeur.eu/f/67u (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)