Faced with the risk of a total interruption of Russian gas supplies to the European Union, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) published a report, on Wednesday 27 July, to examine the possible evolution of gas supply to the EU as well as the ability of the gas infrastructure to meet demand, exports and storage injection needs between 1 October 2022 and 30 September 2023.
The modelling used by ENTSO-G considers, as a starting point, the actual storage levels as of 1 July 2022 with the assumption that gas stops flowing from Russia on that day and will not resume until September 2023.
According to the report, the EU risks running out of most of its gas stocks in the winter period 2022/2023 if it does not immediately implement measures to mitigate the impact of a halt in Russian supplies.
In addition, most countries in Central and Eastern Europe, North-Western Europe and South-Eastern Europe will not be able to replenish gas stocks sufficiently in the summer of 2023 to ensure security of gas supply for the winter of 2023/2024.
“Therefore, it is important that all European storages continue to inject gas as much as possible during Summer 2022 (up to the maximum levels possible)”, ENTSO-G underlined in its report.
The report then presents the four most “efficient” mitigation measures for the gas system operators: - improve cooperation between Member States and facilitate more efficient use of stocks by increasing European capacity; make use of additional volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) available on the world market while increasing transport and LNG terminal capacity; - continue to fill gas reserves throughout 2022; - reduce gas demand by about 15% per Member State in the event of a mild winter.
In addition, the report points to limitations in import capacity in Central and Eastern European countries, as well as a lack of infrastructure in North-Western and South-Eastern European countries to cope with the additional gas flow from the West and South to Central and Eastern European countries.
Josep Borrell says an abrupt halt to Russian deliveries unlikely
As Member States reached agreement on Tuesday on a proposed EU Council regulation to reduce their gas demand by 15% over the next eight months (see EUROPE 13000/1), the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said a sudden and immediate cut-off of Russian gas supplies to the EU was unlikely.
According to him, Moscow’s decision will depend on many factors, including “the evolution of the war in Ukraine”.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/2r6 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)