EU Foreign Ministers will meet again in Luxembourg on Monday 21 June for a new EU Council with a packed agenda.
Belarus. The EU Council is expected to focus first on Belarus, after discussions with prominent opposition member Svetlana Tikhanovskaya before its formal meeting.
The EU-27 ministers will then discuss the situation in the country, which continues to deteriorate.
They are expected to adopt targeted sanctions against 78 individuals and seven entities deemed responsible for the crackdown on the population and for the hijacking of the Athens-Vilnius Ryanair flight on 23 May (see EUROPE 12742/2).
“It’s a package with scope that is commensurate with the deterioration we’ve seen in terms of repression, but also in terms of the hijacking of the Ryanair plane”, said a European source.
Eighty-eight individuals and seven entities are already subject to restrictive measures. According to an EU diplomat, the hijacking was a “game changer” for the EU.
Ministers are also expected to give a political signal on substantial economic sanctions. An agreement was reportedly reached on Friday 18 June on sanctions affecting the chemical, financial and energy sectors. “At the working group level, it seems that there is an agreement, but it is still necessary to go through the whole (approval) chain and for the technical work to become an implementing legal text”, explained an EU diplomat. On this type of measure, “the technical work is longer, because it is complicated to implement. We don’t do it much and we don’t do it often”, added a European source.
The ministers are expected to give their political approval to the compromise reached at technical level between the EU-27. Thus, the legal procedures are not expected to be completed in time for the EU Council. But a formal adoption could happen later this week. This is expected before the European Council on 24 June.
The ministers are also expected to reiterate the EU’s support for a democratic Belarus. They could also revisit the increased migration flows from the Middle East, especially from Iraq, from Belarus to Lithuania.
Iraq. The ministers will then discuss the situation in Iraq, first among the EU-27 and then with their Iraqi counterpart, Fouad Hussein, at a working lunch. They could highlight their concerns about the security and economic situation in the country, including the socioeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The ministers may wish to discuss bilateral relations between the EU and Iraq, which are governed by a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (see EUROPE 12055/8), the EU’s CSDP advisory mission (EUAM Iraq), and issues of common interest, such as migration and internally displaced persons. The importance of reform and the fight against corruption could also be reiterated.
The EU Council is expected to confirm European support for Iraq and to see what more it can do, particularly to support the Iraqi government. It should also discuss the possibility of sending an observation mission for the upcoming October elections. The EU has sent a technical mission to the country to see if it is possible to deploy such an observation mission.
Latin America. Six months after their last discussions on the issue (see EUROPE 12579/28), the ministers will have a new debate on relations between the EU and Latin America, where the Covid-19 pandemic continues to be rampant and, in the opinion of one European diplomat, is having an impact on political affairs.
The ministerial discussions will focus on cooperation on immunisation, trade negotiations with specific countries or blocs of countries, and the political crisis in specific countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua.
The trends at the political level are worrying, another European source said on Friday. According to the source, a summit is “absolutely necessary” to give visibility to relations between the two regions.
The last summit between the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) took place in Brussels in June 2015 (see EUROPE 11332/11).
Current affairs. Under the ‘current affairs’ item, which will be dealt with at the end of the EU Council, ministers are expected to discuss EU-Russia relations ahead of the European Council, where leaders will address the issue (see EUROPE 12725/2), following the presentation of a joint communication by the High Representative of the Union and the European Commission on Wednesday 16 June (see EUROPE 12742/1). The same will apply to Turkey and the work on the positive agenda, which is also expected to be discussed at the Summit (see EUROPE 12686/3). “Turkey and Russia will be discussed in a transitional manner with the European Council, with guidelines given by the ministers” to the leaders, explained an EU diplomat.
An update should also be given on the difficult resumption of dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo (see EUROPE 12741/5).
The Middle East peace process, including the efforts undertaken to revive the Quartet and towards the parties by the new EU Special Representative, Sven Koopmans, after his visit to the region, are also expected to be discussed.
Talks on the Iranian nuclear deal in Vienna, which were still underway on Friday 18 June, the day of the Iranian presidential election, will also be discussed. While an agreement is not yet within reach, a senior official explained that the parties have made significant progress on technical issues and have resolved some political problems, but that the most difficult issues still need to be resolved.
The ministers are also expected to quickly discuss the situations in Ethiopia, where elections are scheduled for 21 June, a subject which will be discussed at greater length at the July EU Council, and in Mali, a few days after the summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which is due to take a position on the crisis in the country, following the French announcement concerning the reconfiguration of its military presence in the Sahel. The latter topic could be discussed at the EU summit.
Following the visit to Lebanon by the High Representative of the Union on 19-20 June, the EU Council will discuss the protracted political crisis in the country and is expected to call for the further preparation of both positive and negative incentives from the EU to help resolve the crisis. The political situation is stagnating, and the economy is deteriorating. We have to see how to stimulate the political class to put in place a government and reforms, explained a European diplomat.
The High Representative will also brief ministers on his trip to the Indo-Pacific region.
Finally, the Swedish, Luxembourg and Irish ministers will report on their respective trips to Yemen, Egypt and the Gulf region.
Furthermore, the EU Council is expected to adopt without debate conclusions on cultural heritage and how it can be managed in the context of conflict prevention.
Further sanctions against the military junta in Myanmar could also be adopted at the EU Council or in the days following. On 4 June, the High Representative of the Union announced that measures targeting the military junta’s personnel and the entity representing the military’s economic interests would soon be adopted (see EUROPE 12733/27). On 16 June, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, speaking before the European Parliament, called on the international community to sanction the oil and gas sectors, which provide the junta with significant income (see EUROPE 12743/19). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Mathieu Bion)