The European space sector suffers from chronic institutional under-funding in order to hope to catch up with the other major space powers, China, Russia and the United States, explained Pierre Lionnet, Director of Research at ASD-Eurospace, at a press briefing on Thursday 23 July.
“The annual European budget is €9.3 billion, whereas in the United States the space budget is over €40 billion, and is divided roughly half for the civilian and half for the military, while in Europe the space budget for the military sector accounts for a mere ninth, or €1.2 billion”, he explained to EUROPE.
These figures suggest that the European budget would have to be quadrupled to match the US budget.
However, the United States has developed a specific strategy of civilian and military duplication, Mr Lionnet said, citing the example of the Delta and Atlas launch vehicles and the development of meteorological infrastructure. Such an expensive duplication strategy does not necessarily have to be followed by Europe, according to this expert.
“We don’t need to have as much as the Americans. We can rely on one single source. If we doubled resources, it would at least bring us up to the level of what the Russians and the Chinese are doing, and bring us closer to the Americans”, he added.
Since 2010, 80% of global space activity has been driven by government programmes, with a slight increase since 2016, according to 2019 figures published by Eurospace. However, according to the study, European institutional demand is six times less than that of the United States or Russia and about 4.5 times less than that of China.
The case of European launch vehicles
The European launch vehicles, Ariane and Vega, are a good example. “Over the last 5 years, 45% of European institutional launches have been made with Russian launchers, whether in Kourou or Baikonur”, the expert said. According to Mr Lionnet, this has a real impact on the competitiveness of the European industry, since the reduction in launcher costs is directly correlated with the frequency of launches.
“Whether a rocket is reusable or disposable, the absolutely fundamental element of the cost function is the volume of launches. For a given technical and industrial system, the simple doubling of the launch frequency can theoretically lead to a reduction of up to 40% in the price per kilogramme in orbit, provided that demand exists and supply is able to keep up”, he explained.
This would create a virtuous circle: increasing the launch rate would lower costs, increase the competitiveness of the European industry and its penetration rate in commercial markets, thereby further reducing costs through a further increase in launches driven by private orders.
Such an increase is possible, according to Mr Lionnet: at the turn of the 2000s, Kourou was capable of carrying out about 20 launches in certain years, using both the Ariane IV and Ariane V launch pads.
“On the European Commission’s side, there is a real understanding of the strategic importance of favouring European rockets. But the problem is rather on the part of the national programmes”, continued the expert, citing the German case in particular.
Turning to the budget negotiations at EU level (see EUROPE 12533/6), Mr Lionnet expects the investment curve in the future to be “either flat or slightly up” compared to previous years.
Earlier this week, Member States agreed to set the EU budget at €13.2 billion (2018 prices), lower than the European Parliament, which proposed €15 billion (see EUROPE 12409/8), and the European Commission (€14.2 billion)
As a reminder, the industry wanted €16 billion (in current prices, which is what the Commission initially proposed), as well as €4 billion for research and development, and €2.5-€5 billion to develop a connectivity programme. This programme was advocated by the Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton. (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)