If this week’s local elections were anything to go by, the UK’s main political parties will face a drubbing in EU-wide elections on 23 May. But with the Brexit timeline still up in the air, it’s still unclear what that will mean.
Preparations for the European elections have been ramping up in the UK, with candidates declaring for the country’s 12 constituencies this week. Two new political groups are running candidates, including former UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and the anti-Brexit Change UK-Independent group of former conservative and Labour MPs. UKIP will run 70 candidates, while one of the party’s political advisers, far-right activist Tommy Robinson, is also standing.
However, even if the UK does elect new MEPs, it’s still unclear whether they will take their seats when the Parliament resumes work in July. Talks between the Conservative and Labour parties continued this week to try to find a compromise, but there is little hope of a breakthrough in time to avoid the EU elections – a fact that even government spokespeople have been acknowledging, unofficially.
Another meeting between Labour and the Conservatives is scheduled for next week, and their differences still loom large. Conservative Brexiteers will never agree to Labour’s demand to remain in a customs union with the EU, while Labour is tearing itself apart over whether to hold a second referendum (EUROPE 12246/30). Prime minister Theresa May signalled this week that she is hoping for some sort of linguistic fix, telling MPs there is “greater commonality” between the two sides on customs than it appears. “Various terms are used in relation to customs,” she said. “Sometimes people use different terms to mean the same thing.”
The electorate has tired of the infighting. In local elections on 2 May for local councils and mayors in England and Northern Ireland only (not Scotland and Wales), both of the main political parties lost ground, largely because of their failure to do a Brexit deal. Though the vote count was still going on as The B-Word went to press, it is clear that there have been gains for the Liberal Democrats, who want to keep the UK in the EU, as well as the Greens. Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice told the BBC that things could get even worse for the two main parties on 23 May when they face off against the Brexit Party and Change UK who did not run candidates in the local elections.
Back on mainland Europe, Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans said “there is still hope” that the UK will remain an EU member. Speaking at a debate in Florence with lead candidates of four political groups (EUROPE 12246/2), he said that if his liberal counterpart Guy Verhofstadt can change his mind about the Spitzenkandidaten process, then the UK should be allowed to change its mind about staying in the EU.
For now, though, it’s a game of wait and see.
Sarah Collins