Cereal production in the EU is expected to recover in 2019/2020, while the sugar harvest is expected to fall by 17%, according to the short-term outlook for agricultural markets published by the European Commission on 17 April.
In 2019/2020, EU cereal production is expected to recover from the previous harvest, which was low due to the effects of adverse weather conditions. The harvest is expected to reach 307.5 million tonnes, compared to 290.5 million tonnes in 2018/2019. A slight increase in the total area of EU cereals is also expected compared to the previous season: 55.8 million hectares in 2019, compared to 55.1 million hectares in 2018. However, it remains 1% below the five-year average.
Good news for olive oil. European olive oil exports are expected to reach record levels in 2019. Due to a significant increase in Spanish olive oil production (1.7 million tonnes, the second highest increase since 2003), European olive oil production is expected to increase by 2.9% in 2019. Rising global demand and reduced supply from non-EU countries are expected to lead to an 11% increase in EU exports, or 625,000 tonnes.
Dairy products. Dairy production is expected to increase by 0.7% in 2019 to 167.3 million tonnes from 166.4 million tonnes in 2018. Cheese is the most consumed dairy product on the EU market and its consumption is expected to increase slightly in 2019 (+0.5%).
Sugar in decline. Due to adverse weather conditions, sugar production in 2018/2019 is estimated at 17.6 million tonnes, 17% lower than in 2017/2018. This decrease is expected to contribute to a significant decrease in EU sugar exports (total of 1.7 million tonnes).
Decrease for beef. The Commission expects European beef production to fall by 1.3% in 2019 (to 8.1 million tonnes). Beef consumption in the EU will also decrease in 2019 from 11 kg to 10.8 kg per head (retail weight).
In 2018, poultry production increased by almost 5% thanks to favourable international conditions and rising prices. However, in 2019, output growth will be more moderate, estimated at 2%, due to the price adjustment.
For pork, in 2019, prices are rising as supply tightens. In addition, export prospects are improving, especially towards China.
For short-term perspectives: https://bit.ly/2VPk0Hx. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)