The Twenty-Seven will only be able to take a decision on a possible request for the extension of Article 50 if Theresa May demonstrates the "usefulness" of such a request and defines a "political process" for the future of the withdrawal agreement for an orderly Brexit and the political declaration on future bilateral relations, the only plan currently valid in the eyes of Europeans.
This is the observation made on Tuesday 19 March by the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, at the end of a European Affairs Ministers meeting in Article 50 format. However, for Michel Barnier, it should not be forgotten that an extension of the negotiation period, subject to the unanimous decision of the Twenty-Seven, also corresponds to an "extension of uncertainty" and this has a "cost" both politically and economically.
Earlier in the day, Ministers reviewed the situation, which had been complicated the previous evening by the reading of House of Commons Speaker John Bercow making it impossible to hold a third vote on the withdrawal agreement before the March 21 European summit. A decision that "makes it even less clear after yesterday", commented Romanian Minister for European Affairs George Ciamba (see EUROPE 12216/16). Ministers also adopted new measures to prepare for the scenario of an exit without agreement, with the preparation of the Twenty-Seven for the "no deal" almost complete, the Minister even said.
When they arrived in Brussels on Tuesday morning, the French and German ministers had already insisted on the necessary justification for extending the negotiations, with France's Nathalie Loiseau asking for "credible" justifications and Germany's Secretary of State Michael Roth hoping that this extension would not mean getting lost in "abstract negotiations".
For Michel Barnier, it is quite possible to take into account certain requests, or even to change again, "in a matter of a few days", the nature of the political declaration (on the future relationship), if London were to change its red lines.
Otherwise, "what is the purpose of the extension?", he asked. How can we ensure "that in the end we do not find ourselves in the same situation as today"? This is what the Twenty-Seven will have to study at the end of the week, Mr Barnier insisted, asking the British Government and Parliament once again to "decide very quickly what to do" and to answer these questions: does an extension increase the "chances of ratifying the draft withdrawal agreement" and will the time allocated for the extension precisely be used to "rework the political declaration"?
In London, according to British media reports, Prime Minister Theresa May was about to send a letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, asking for an extension of Article 50; she could, according to the same media reports, request both an extension until 30 June with a possible option to extend for a longer period, even if the government spokesperson had not confirmed the envisioned duration. The letter will arrive before the European Council which starts on Thursday 21 March, but again, the British Government did not specify whether it will be Tuesday evening, Wednesday or Thursday morning. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)