Brexit fatigue has reached a peak this week, as the gap in expectations between London and Brussels widens even further. If you’re feeling pessimistic, you’re not the only one.
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is “not very optimistic” about the prospect of an orderly Brexit, he said this week: “I have something like a Brexit fatigue because this is a disaster.” And that was after he held talks with British prime minister Theresa May (EUROPE 12199), though the two have promised to meet again before a UK parliamentary vote next Wednesday.
EU leaders (including Juncker and May) will be in Egypt on Sunday for a summit with the League of Arab States, and while the agenda is supposed to focus on migration, terrorism and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East (see other news), there is hope (on the UK side) that they can get some Brexit brokering done.
“We know this isn’t a meeting about Brexit and we’re not going to turn it into one,” said one British official. “Of course, the PM [prime minister] will take the opportunity to talk to some leaders.” Mrs May is due to meet European Council president Donald Tusk at the summit, but no other meetings had been confirmed as of Friday afternoon.
The summit follows talks between EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK’s Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay and attorney general Geoffrey Cox, who both travelled to Brussels – twice – this week to talk about removing the Irish backstop from the draft withdrawal agreement. Again, the EU said no, but it’s clear the real negotiations are still going on in London.
For its part, the EU is discussing “imaginative” solutions to convince Brexiteers – particularly the 10 Democratic Unionist MPs and Tories in the backbench European Research Group – that the Irish border backstop is not permanent. Call it an annex, an implementing agreement, a codicil or whatever; it must be robust enough to allow Geoffrey Cox to go back on his December advice that the backstop could “endure indefinitely”.
But this clearly won’t be ready in time for the 27 February vote in the UK parliament, making a Brexit delay all the more likely. According to the European Parliament’s legal advice, that could mean UK citizens taking part in the May elections, voting for MEPs that may never actually take their seats. But yesterday European Commission Vice-president Frans Timmermans said the opposite, citing the legal opinions of the legal services of the Commission and of the Council of the EU.
It’s no surprise, then, that no-deal preparations have stepped up a notch.
On Friday, the Irish government published a 15-part “omnibus bill” to protect citizens and companies in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The draft legislation ensures, for instance, that: – Irish patients can still be reimbursed for healthcare received in Belfast or London; – the 12-year-old all-island electricity market can continue to function, via new temporary operating licenses; – British students in Ireland and Irish students in the UK are still eligible for grants; – school buses can continue to travel north and south of the border without having to apply for extra authorisation. A temporary insurance regime will give UK providers three years to “run off” their Irish portfolios. Income, capital and company tax reliefs will remain for the time being. And Dublin is setting up a new extradition arrangement with the UK to replace the EU arrest warrant.
“A disorderly Brexit will be a lose, lose, lose for the UK, for Europe and for Ireland,” Ireland’s foreign minister Simon Coveney said on Friday. “We cannot offset all the damage it will do, but we are doing everything we can.” (Sarah Collins)