On Tuesday 20 January, the EU’s finance ministers are due to discuss Europe’s response to the new trade threats made by US President Donald Trump against European countries that have sent troops to Greenland, although the subject is not officially on the agenda for the first Ecofin Council meeting under the Cyprus Presidency (see EUROPE 13789/1).
The possibility that some ministers will “refer” to the renewed transatlantic tensions over breakfast cannot be ruled out, said a European diplomatic source on Monday 19 January.
With two days to go before an extraordinary European summit convened by President of the European Council António Costa, a number of delegations are expected to advocate for preparing several trade response instruments (freezing the July 2025 EU-US agreement, additional tariffs, ‘anti-coercion’ instrument), in case Washington carries out its threats.
Ukraine. The ministers will review the EU’s macrofinancial assistance to Ukraine, a priority that the Cyprus Presidency of the EU Council has taken up.
Officially, the legislative package to implement the €90 billion loan to Ukraine for 2026 and 2027 (see EUROPE 13786/4) is not on the meeting agenda. After two initial discussions at the political and technical levels, the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper) will attempt to move the issue forward on Wednesday 21 January.
This issue is “a political imperative. We’ll do our utmost to ensure Ukraine receives financial assistance in a sustainable and steady manner”, stressed this European source.
One of the key issues in the negotiations will be establishing a European preference in arms purchases by Ukraine with EU financial support, similar to the ‘SAFE’ loan instrument.
Stability Pact. The Ecofin Council is expected to decide to open an excessive deficit procedure against Finland, based on the European Commission’s recommendation issued in December (see EUROPE 13772/4).
In line with the revised Stability and Growth Pact, the new net expenditure growth path recommended for Finland should be as follows: 1.3% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028. In this way, the Finnish authorities should be able to reduce the national public deficit to below 3% of national GDP in 2028.
See the European Commission’s draft recommendation: https://aeur.eu/f/jyw
RRF. Without debate, the ministers are expected to approve the post-Covid-19 recovery plan revisions for the following six Member States: Germany, Spain, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden.
See the revised draft plans and their annexes: https://aeur.eu/f/k6v
European Semester. In addition, the Ecofin Council will adopt conclusions broadly endorsing the Commission’s analysis of evolving macroeconomic imbalances, including high housing prices and the dependence on external financing of countries with high external deficits.
It will require an in-depth analysis of these imbalances in seven EU countries: Greece, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, the Netherlands, Romania and Sweden.
To see the draft conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/kao
Jordan. Finally, the ministers will formally approve the fifth macrofinancial assistance package of €500 million to Jordan to help it consolidate its public finances and meet its external financing needs (see EUROPE 13731/30).
See the legal text: https://aeur.eu/f/kan (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)