Exasperated, the European Union made it clear over the weekend and on Monday 19 January that it would not be cowed by yet another act of blackmail by US President Donald Trump, who unleashes new threats of tariffs with each new upset. Recourse to the ‘anti-coercion’ tool, the EU’s ‘trade bazooka’ against hostile countries, is on the table, but does not appear to be the preferred instrument at this stage.
The US administration has announced a 10% tariff increase targeting eight European countries involved in a military exercise aimed at protecting the coast of Greenland: not only Denmark, but also Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
If the United States carries out its threat on 1 February, European Commission spokesman Olof Gill said that “the EU has tools at its disposal and is prepared to respond should the threatened tariffs be imposed”.
Anti-coercion tool. The EU’s ‘anti-coercion’ tool is once again on everyone’s lips. Adopted in 2023 (see EUROPE 13195/1), to deal with “economic blackmail” by third countries, this instrument lists a series of possible countermeasures, which it is up to the Commission to select, such as restrictions on access to the EU market and other economic disadvantages. Various areas may be directly concerned: trade in goods and services, foreign direct investments, access to public procurement markets, etc.
Some European voices are calling for the US digital sector to be targeted, for targeted restrictions to be imposed on the export of sensitive strategic technologies produced in the EU, and for US sovereign debt securities held in EU jurisdictions to be sold.
In a speech, the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Noël Barrot, pointed out that “the euro area countries hold €3,000 billion more in assets than the Americans hold in Europe”. “No one ever wins a trade war”, he continued.
However, the response is not immediate: following the Commission’s examination, the EU Member States have eight to ten weeks to reach a decision by qualified majority, which is not guaranteed. Finally, the European Commission will have to decide on the nature of the response in less than six months.
The use of the ‘anti-coercion’ tool had already been mentioned earlier, in 2025, in reaction to Mr Trump’s first threats to raise tariffs (see EUROPE 13577/1), but had not been applied.
While the French President, Emmanuel Macron, openly defends the use of this instrument, other countries support it, but are more cautious, such as Germany. Paris and Berlin could also negotiate a joint strategy to respond to US threats (see EUROPE 13789/4). Other countries, such as Italy, are more cautious.
According to one European source, it is necessary to “distinguish between what Trump says and what he does”. “He is under economic pressure. There is a limit to how long this madness can go on, and that limit could well be the mid-term elections”.
On a technical level, several experts believe that it is also very complicated, if not impossible, to impose tariffs on individual countries within the EU, citing the bureaucratic complexity of defining the national origin of all European export products.
Reactivation of countermeasures to the amount of €93 billion. At an emergency meeting on Sunday 18 January, the Member States’ ambassadors discussed the possibility of imposing tariffs on €93 billion worth of US products. This would be a reactivation of the countermeasures initially envisaged, but then suspended following the agreement sealed between the EU and the United States in the summer of 2025. This introduces a maximum ceiling of 15% for all EU products (see EUROPE 13694/15).
As Olof Gill explained, the suspension of these countermeasures expires automatically on 6 February.
“Unless the Commission - after consulting the Member States and following the usual comitology procedure - takes steps to extend the suspension, it will end and the measures will come into force on 7 February”, he confirmed.
The various response options will be discussed on the evening of Thursday 22 January at an extraordinary summit of European leaders announced by the President of the European Council, António Costa, “due to the significance of recent developments and in order to strengthen coordination”.
Before then, the EU hopes to be able to open talks with the US administration at the Davos Economic Forum. President Trump is due to visit on Wednesday 21 January, but at this stage no meeting has been officially confirmed. According to a European source, if the EU is prepared to defend its values and principles, “the next few days will be devoted to constructive dialogue with the United States”.
However, a European response would be “very ill-advised”, warned US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday before the start of Davos.
An exceptional meeting of the College of Commissioners could also take place on Friday, the day after the European Summit.
European political unity in the face of US threats. On Monday, Denmark’s Defence Minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, and Greenland’s Foreign Minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, met in Brussels with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte - who will be meeting Mr Trump in Davos - as well as with the High Representative of the Union, Kaja Kallas, in two separate meetings.
“We discussed how important the Arctic - including Greenland - is to our collective security and how Denmark is stepping up investments in key capabilities. We will continue to work together as allies on these important issues”, promised Mr Rutte. According to Troels Lund Poulsen, Mr Rutte is “fully aware of the difficult situation facing Denmark and NATO itself”. He added that the discussion had focused in particular on the idea of a NATO mission in Greenland.
“Arctic security is a shared transatlantic interest, and one we can discuss with our US allies”, Ms Kallas said after the meeting, asserting that “sovereignty is not up for negotiation”. “We have no interest to pick a fight, but we will hold our ground. Europe has a slate of tools to protect its interests”, she warned.
According to a European source, the meeting of Member State ambassadors on Sunday showed a convergence of positions, with unity around the common principles of respect for international law, territorial integrity and sovereignty, and support for Denmark and Greenland.
In parallel with this meeting, António Costa held talks with the Member States and the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the Secretary General of NATO.
Donald Trump refuses to budge. In addition to asserting European unity, Mr Costa highlighted the recognition of the common transatlantic interest in peace and security in the Arctic, notably through NATO, and the desire to pursue a constructive dialogue with the United States on all issues of common interest.
“We will always protect our strategic, economic and security interests”, promised Ms von der Leyen.
The latter and Mr Costa, like the countries taking part in the Danish exercise, reiterated that the “pre-coordinated Danish exercise, conducted with allies, responds to the need to strengthen Arctic security and poses no threat to anyone”.
On Sunday, on his Social Truth network, Donald Trump reiterated his intentions. He explained that “NATO has been telling Denmark, for 20 years, that you have to get Russian threat away from Greenland. Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it”. “Now it is time, and it will be done!”, he warned. In a letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, he explained that he had done more for NATO than anyone else and that the Alliance should now do something for the United States. “The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland”, said Mr Trump.
Possible postponement of negotiations underway in the European Parliament. Because of the situation, the European Parliament, which was due to vote on a report on EU-US relations, decided to postpone the vote until a later plenary session.
With regard to the agreement reached last summer between the EU and the United States, Parliament was initially due to vote next week on two draft regulations aimed at lowering tariffs on certain US products in the Committee on International Trade (INTA) (see EUROPE 13786/6). This is unlikely to be the case, as suggested by several MEPs active on the subject.
Bernd Lange (S&D, German), permanent rapporteur on EU-US relations, called for negotiations to be suspended until the threats cease, and called on the Commission to activate the anti-coercion instrument.
The Chair of the EPP Group, Manfred Weber, explained that “given Donald Trump’s threats concerning Greenland, approval is impossible at this stage. The 0% tariff on US products must be suspended”.
Similarly, the Chair of the Renew Europe group, Valérie Hayer, sent a letter to the European Commission on Sunday explaining that her group could not vote in favour of these texts linked to the EU-US agreement.
“Continuing under the current political conditions would send out the wrong signal, suggesting that trade cooperation can be dissociated from respect for European sovereignty and territorial integrity”, she stressed.
See Renew Europe group letter: https://aeur.eu/f/kb0 (Original version in French by Pauline Denys and Camille-Cerise Gessant)