Despite global uncertainties, the EU’s agricultural markets are showing good resilience, with cereals production up, a clear recovery in olive oil production, stable milk deliveries and a solid outlook for poultry, according to the short-term agricultural outlook published by the European Commission on Monday 28 July.
The report points to lower production prospects for sugar and wine.
Geopolitical instabilities, climate challenges and the changing trade policies of major players such as the United States and China pose threats to the stability of global and European markets, the Commission points out. Input costs for European farmers have remained stable in recent months.
Arable crops. EU cereals production for the 2025/26 marketing year is set to rise by 4.1%, which will improve the trade balance, with exports up by 26% and imports down by 19%. Oilseed production is set to increase by 12% (mainly rapeseed and sunflower), leading to a 6% rise in vegetable oil production. On the other hand, after an increase of 6.5% in 2024/25 thanks to an increase in acreage, sugar production could fall by 8% in 2025/26, which would require greater recourse to imports.
Olive oil prices fell in 2025, due to a 37% rebound in production.
Wine production for 2024/25 could reach its lowest level for 20 years, weighing on exports, while domestic consumption continues to decline.
Apple production is set to fall by 4%, peaches and nectarines by 5.8% and oranges by 4.6%.
Animal products. Milk deliveries should remain stable in 2025. Beef prices remain historically high, but production is falling due to smaller herds, reducing available supply and limiting exports, while imports are increasing. Pork production is set to remain stable, underpinned by steady domestic demand. Poultry sales are forecast to rise by 1.8%, driven by strong demand. Finally, production of sheep and goat meat is set to fall by 2%, leading to a decline in exports and a rise in imports, against a backdrop of high prices.
See the forecasts: https://aeur.eu/f/i0q (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)