At their summit on Wednesday 25 June, the leaders of NATO member nations are expected to agree on a new defence spending target of 5% of their GDP, with 3.5% for pure defence spending and 1.5% for related expenditure such as infrastructure, developing the industrial base or strengthening resilience and the cyber domain.
While there were rumours of a 2032 target date, the date finally chosen should be 2035, with a review in 2029, the year in which capability targets will also be reviewed (see EUROPE 13654/13). In recent months, the United States, which has been pushing for an increase in spending, has called for a shorter timetable than the 10 years agreed in Wales in 2014 to reach the 2% target. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on Monday 23 June that this objective would finally be achieved by all the Allies this year.
“We need to strike a balance between urgency and realism [...] Our adversaries will not wait until we are ready [...] We also recognise that it will take time for our defence industry to turn this increased spending into real capabilities”, explained Matthew Whitaker, the US Ambassador to NATO, on the same day.
The Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kestutis Burdys, felt that the implementation timetable was not “ambitious” enough. “The dates I see (2032 or 2035) are not ambitious enough. We must aim for a target of over 5% by 2030, as we are already doing in Lithuania next year”, he added.
The American ambassador also felt that, given the global situation - and contrary to the commitments made in 2014 which were only really implemented late on - the Allies should be even more vigilant and hold each other accountable for the progress made year on year. “This will certainly be at the top of the agenda for the United States and its NATO allies in the years to come”, he warned.
Agreement with Spain. A compromise of sorts, given that on Thursday 19 June, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated in a letter to the NATO Secretary General that committing to the 5% target would be “irresponsible” and “counter-productive” for his country.
After several days of negotiations with Mark Rutte, Spain has obtained a derogation that does not bear its name. On Sunday 22 June, in a letter of reply to Pedro Sánchez, Mark Rutte confirmed that Madrid will have the flexibility to chart “its own sovereign path for reaching the capability target goal and the annual resources necessary as a share of GDP and to submit its own annual plan”. “The trajectory and balance of spending under the plan will be reviewed in 2029, in light of the strategic environment and updated NATO capability targets”, added Mr Rutte.
On Monday, Spain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, reiterated that his country had always believed that the debate should not be about percentages, but rather about capacities. “Spain can achieve the capabilities set by the Alliance with a defence spending ceiling of 2.1%”, he explained, something that experts dispute.
Although other Allies - Belgium, Italy, Canada, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom - had their doubts about the 5%, none of them had publicly asked on Monday for the same flexibility as Spain.
The one-page declaration, which the leaders should adopt, should mention the increase in defence spending and that this must be translated into additional capabilities, including from an industrial point of view. “As we invest more, it’s crucial that we produce more. At present, supply is far from sufficient to meet the growing demand on both sides of the Atlantic”, warned Mr Rutte, calling for close collaboration with industry. The NATO summit will be preceded on Tuesday afternoon by a Defence Industry Forum.
Russia, a long-term threat to NATO’s security. In addition to this new 5% commitment, the declaration should issue a reminder that Russia represents a threat to Euro-Atlantic security and mention Ukraine. “It is undeniable, the reason we are so focused on increasing defence investment to 5% is because of Russia and the long-term threat Russia poses to NATO security”, explained Mr Whitaker.
While the United States initially wanted only financial support for Ukraine to be mentioned, the Europeans succeeded in getting the declaration to include the fact that Ukraine contributes to the defence of the Allies. In addition, support for Kyiv could be counted by the Allies as part of their 3.5% pure defence spending.
On Monday, NATO’s Secretary General also announced that the European and Canadian Allies had pledged more than €35 billion in additional security assistance to Ukraine over the coming year. “In The Hague, the Allies will reaffirm their continued support for Ukraine”, Mr Rutte promised, adding that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team would be joining the Allies for various meetings over the coming days. However, there are no plans for a NATO-Ukraine Council at leader level.
On Tuesday evening, President Zelensky will be attending the informal dinner of the leaders of the NATO countries and their partners from the Indo-Pacific region (Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea) and the EU.
At the same time, the foreign ministers will meet for a NATO-Ukraine Council and the defence ministers for a North Atlantic Council. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)