The European foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 17 March to discuss, once again, their support for Ukraine.
After their usual exchange with their Ukrainian counterpart, the ministers are due to discuss the High Representative’s new proposal for military support. In order to circumvent a possible Hungarian veto, the High Representative is putting forward “a coalition of the willing” with Member States ready to participate, including the possibility of including third countries.
These countries will be encouraged to provide support in 2025 worth at least €20 billion, rising to €40 billion depending on Ukraine’s needs. Commitments should be received by 30 April.
The initiative will also involve the supply of two million ammunitions this year. “Ukraine urgently needs artillery and ammunition. There is an urgent need to purchase and deliver this equipment, as well as anti-aircraft defence systems and missile interceptors”, explained a senior European official, who also highlighted the training and equipping of Ukrainian brigades and the repair of equipment already supplied.
On Friday, a European diplomat said they hoped that this support could reach €40 billion, given the needs. Each country would contribute according to its Gross National Income (GNI), either in cash or directly in kind. The €1.9 billion in windfall profits from frozen Russian assets would also be included in the final amount.
However, many questions remained on Friday. The system of governance, the mandatory or indicative use of GNI as a distribution key, coordination with the G7 loan (ERA) and the inclusion of contributions under security guarantees all need to be clarified. Some Member States are also concerned about the deadline. While some are planning their support for Ukraine, others are responding to Kyiv’s requests on an ad hoc basis, and therefore reportedly find it difficult to anticipate total support over the course of a year.
Although a draft of the conclusions of the European Council meeting on 20 March, dated 14 March and obtained by Agence Europe, makes no explicit reference to the initiative, it is expected to be discussed by European leaders. According to the draft, the European Council should reaffirm the EU’s “’peace through strength’ approach, which requires Ukraine to be in the strongest possible position, with its own robust military and defence capabilities as an essential component”. Expressing its determination, in coordination with like-minded partners and allies, to provide additional and comprehensive support to Ukraine and its people, the European Council is expected to welcome the resumption of US military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
The ministers are also expected to return to the proposed 30-day truce (see EUROPE 13598/17). According to the draft conclusions, the European Council will welcome the progress made in the peace talks concluded between US and Ukrainian representatives on 11 March. It will reportedly call on Russia to show “real political will” to end the war. In a statement on Friday 14 March, the G7 foreign ministers welcomed Ukraine’s willingness to reach an immediate ceasefire, calling on Russia to accept and fully implement it. They warned that they had discussed imposing additional costs on Russia if such a ceasefire was not agreed.
To see the statement: https://cdn-ca.aglty.io/ea689367/Attachments/statement_en.pdf
The next package of sanctions against Russia, the 17th one, could also be discussed. At the European summit, the EU is also expected to declare its readiness to step up the pressure on Russia.
Iran. The EU Council will then turn its attention to Iran. It will reportedly discuss Tehran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, its nuclear programme, its policy of hostage diplomacy, its malign activities in Europe and destabilisation in the region, and its repression of the ruling opposition.
Middle East. The ministers will discuss the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, phase 1 of which has been extended in the absence of phase 2. The extension of the first phase will enable the EUBAM Rafah mission, which has allowed 4,000 people to leave Gaza over the last six weeks, to continue its operations. The Arab Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for Gaza (see EUROPE 13596/20), the humanitarian situation in Gaza and tensions in the West Bank will also be debated. Support for the Palestinian Authority could also be discussed, ahead of the high-level dialogue with Palestinian leaders in April.
According to the draft conclusions, the European Council is expected to call for progress towards the second phase of the ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza, and recall the importance of sustainable large-scale distribution of humanitarian aid throughout the Gaza Strip. The European Council will also encourage efforts to implement the recovery and reconstruction plan.
Syria. A few hours before the International Conference in Support of Syria in Brussels (see other news), the ministers will examine the situation in the country and are expected to come back on the violence of recent weeks and the murder of more than a thousand civilians, who are said to be mainly from the Alawite minority (see EUROPE 13598/3). “If such an event were to happen again, we could thoroughly reconsider the decisions taken so far”, explained a diplomat, recalling the principle of reversibility of sanctions. The lifting of additional sanctions could be discussed as well. The ministers could also return to the constitutional declaration for the transitional period, with the drafting of a constitution and the organisation of elections in five years’ time.
The “recent widespread violence” against civilians is due to be condemned on Thursday by the European Council, which is expected to urge the transitional authorities to guarantee the protection of all civilians and to ensure that the perpetrators of violence are held accountable for their actions. It will reportedly stress “the importance of a peaceful and inclusive transition in Syria and the protection of rights of Syrians from all ethnic and religious backgrounds without discrimination”.
United States. Finally, over lunch, the EU Council will discuss EU-US foreign policy relations. According to one diplomat, the aim will be to take stock of the need to maintain a close channel of dialogue and to advocate for no decision on European security to be taken without Europe and on Ukraine without Ukraine. The ministers could also discuss how the EU can step up certain actions to compensate for the cuts in USAID support.
DRC. The EU Council is expected to adopt sanctions against nine individuals and one entity in connection with the situation in the DRC.
To see the draft conclusions of the European Council: https://aeur.eu/f/fxu (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)