The new edition of the ‘Global Energy and Climate Outlook’ (GECO 2024), published by the European Commission on Friday 31 January, shows that the world is still not on track to meet its climate targets due to existing implementation gaps between the current policies of G20 economies and their commitments.
There are also ambition gaps, as commitments set out in the ‘Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are not enough to achieve the 1.5°C trajectory set by the Paris Agreement.
“Whilst emissions peak in the coming years in all scenarios, the world is currently (...) on track for 2.6°C of warming by the end of the century”, the study points out.
However, if countries fully implement their NDC targets, this increase could be limited to 2.3°C and “mid-century decarbonisation pledges [could] lower this increase to 1.8°C”.
The study indicates that the current decade is essential for keeping the 1.5°C target possible, as is aligning the new cycle of NDCs expected before COP30 in Belém in November.
The European Union’s NDC will derive from the 2040 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target on which the co-legislators are due to agree later this year. However, the deadline seems short, since the European Commission has yet to present its legislative proposal and an indicative date was not included in the agenda set out in the ‘Competitiveness Compass’ published on 29 January (see EUROPE 13569/9).
However, a Commission spokesperson confirmed to the European press on 31 January that “the plan” remained to present the EU’s NDC in time for the COP.
The GECO 2024 study presents a set of 1.5°C-aligned indicators for 2035 consisting of (1) producing clean electricity, (2) electrifying end-uses and improving energy efficiency, (3) decarbonising sectors where it is difficult to reduce emissions, and (4) scaling-up negative emissions.
By 2035, according to the analysis, each G20 country should produce at least 50% of its electricity from non-fossil fuels and ensure that electricity accounts for at least 35% of its final energy consumption, with continuous improvements in energy efficiency. In addition, they should implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) to deal with around 10% of industrial emissions.
To see the study: https://aeur.eu/f/fbc (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)