France presented, on Thursday 31 October, its medium-term fiscal-structural plan, which contains macroeconomic data for five years, i.e. until 2029, but is intended to enable it to comply with the revised Stability and Growth Pact over a seven-year adjustment period, i.e. until 2031.
The French authorities are forecasting the following trajectory for net public spending: 1.4% in 2025, 0.6% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027, 2028 and 2029. Combined with estimated growth of between 1.1% of national GDP in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, this trajectory should make it possible to reduce the public deficit as follows: 6.1% of GDP in 2024, 5.0% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027, 3.3% in 2028 and 2.8% in 2029.
French public debt, the third highest in the euro area after the public debt of Greece and Italy, would continue to rise from 114.7% to 116.5% of GDP between 2025 and 2027, before gradually falling again to 115.8% in 2029.
The aim is to emerge from the excessive deficit procedure in 2029, with debt reduction starting in 2028, a diplomatic source said on Monday 4 November. According to this source, to ensure the credibility of this plan, which has been implemented in record time, it was important to concentrate the fiscal consolidation effort at the start of the period, with the public deficit reduced to 5% of GDP by 2025.
Hungary. On Monday, Hungary also presented its medium-term fiscal-structural plan, for a four-year period, which should enable it to emerge from the excessive deficit procedure as early as 2026.
The Hungarian authorities are forecasting the following trajectory for net public expenditure: 6.1% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027 and 4.8% in 2028. This trajectory aims to reduce the country’s public deficit from 4.5% to 1.5% of GDP between 2025 and 2028, with a deficit of 2.9% of GDP in 2026.
Hungarian public debt would gradually fall from 72.6% to 67.7% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
To see the macro-budget plans submitted by twenty Member States at this stage: https://aeur.eu/f/djs (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)