The leaders of the 32 member countries of the Atlantic Alliance meet in Washington DC on Tuesday 9 July for a three-day Summit, the first for Sweden and the last for Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Following the celebration of the Alliance’s 75th anniversary on Tuesday 9, the leaders will discuss, on Wednesday 10 and Thursday 11, the Alliance’s long-term support for Ukraine, the strengthening of their collective defence and the deepening of partnerships, including with the EU.
Support for Ukraine
“Our most urgent task at the Summit will be support to Ukraine. Ukraine must prevail, and they need our sustained support”, warned the Secretary General on Friday 5 July. A meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council is scheduled for Friday, in the presence of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.
According to Mr Stoltenberg, the leaders should agree on a “substantial package”. He called for immediate military support for Ukraine, including air defence systems and munitions, as the Russian attacks continue.
Ambassador Michael Carpenter, Senior Director for Europe at the US National Security Council, explained on Monday 8 July that the United States would be making announcements later in the week to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences, without giving further details.
The Allies are also expected to agree on the ‘NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine’. This union will take over the function of coordinating assistance to Ukraine, which is currently carried out by the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein), which is chaired by the US Secretary of State for Defence. This ‘union’ – some Allies do not want to use the term ‘mission’ – will be responsible for coordinating and providing the bulk of international security assistance, “with a command headed by a three-star general, around 700 people working in a NATO headquarters in Germany (in Wiesbaden, editor’s note), and at logistics hubs in the eastern part of the Alliance”, explained the Secretary General.
The Allies should also agree on a financial commitment. While the Secretary General initially spoke of €100 billion without specifying the duration, the commitment will be €40 billion by 2025. “Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Allies have provided around 40 billion euros in military aid each year. Allies agree that this is a minimum baseline. I expect Allies will decide at the Summit to sustain this level within the next year”, explained Mr Stoltenberg. He said he hoped that the burden will be shared “fairly” between the Allies, based on the size of their GDP.
According to the Secretary General, such a predictable commitment would make it possible to strengthen support for Ukraine, which depends “on much more ad hoc and short-term announcements, where there is often a problem of transparency and accountability” and of honouring commitments made.
Mr Stoltenberg has already announced that the level of support will be reviewed at the next Alliance summit, scheduled for 24-26 June 2025 in The Hague, Netherlands, the country of his successor, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (see EUROPE 13440/13).
Although some countries are spending more on Ukraine on the basis of the GDP key than their contribution to the 40 billion would represent, a source at the Élysée Palace said that there had been “a fair amount of reticence on the part of certain countries”, because some had given an amount “well below” what they should have received under the GDP key, notably Turkey. Hungary, for its part, obtained an agreement with the Secretary General not to participate in the Alliance’s military or financial support to Ukraine, in exchange for not blocking the decisions of the 31 other Allies (see EUROPE 13430/16).
The Secretary General also called for new bilateral security agreements to be signed with Ukraine. Many Allies have already signed such agreements. At least 18 Allies have signed a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, as has the EU (see EUROPE 13441/2), which includes 23 Allies.
Finally, Mr Stoltenberg announced that the Allies should push for greater military interoperability between NATO and Ukraine. “We will agree to work more closely with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Including at a new NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre in Poland”, he said, adding that the Allies will work to develop Ukraine’s defence industry and deepen cooperation on innovation.
Although “all the work we are doing together is making Ukraine stronger, more interoperable and better prepared than ever to join our Alliance”, no official invitation will be sent to Kyiv to become the 33rd member of the Alliance. According to Mr Carpenter, in their declaration, the Allies are expected to reiterate their support for Ukraine’s efforts on the road to membership.
The subject of Ukraine’s path towards the Alliance remains a delicate point, as it was at the Vilnius summit last year, acknowledged a source at the Élysée Palace. The United States and Germany do not want to move too quickly regarding an invitation. According to this source, “the point of balance that is being found is that everyone has already recognised in previous documents that Ukraine’s future lies within NATO. (...) The idea is to show that this trajectory is in some ways irreversible. We are going further than what was decided in Vilnius” (see EUROPE 13220/1). The notion that the process is irreversible is important for Kyiv.
Deterrence and defence
The leaders of the allied countries will also discuss deterrence and defence, to strengthen the protection of their states. They are expected to discuss the Alliance’s eastern flank, as well as its southern flank (see EUROPE 13406/12), and to review progress on measures agreed at previous summits, including new defence plans.
While NATO had pledged to have 300,000 soldiers at a high state of readiness, as well as substantial air and naval power, the Secretary General said he was delighted that the Alliance now had “500,000 troops on high readiness, combat-ready battlegroups in the eastern part of the Alliance for the first time (and) more high-end capabilities, including fifth generation aircraft”.
The leaders are expected to endorse a commitment to strengthen transatlantic defence industrial cooperation, to boost production, and to reinforce ballistic missile defences, with a new Aegis Ashore base in Poland.
As at every summit, the level of defence spending will be discussed. “23 Allies, a record number, now invest at least 2 percent of GDP in defence”, Mr Stoltenberg was pleased to announce (see EUROPE 13434/21). After deciding in 2014 that the objective was to reach 2%, last year the Allies agreed that 2% was a minimum to be achieved. While some Allies are calling for a higher percentage – the Polish and Estonian presidents in particular have asked for 3% – a source at the Élysée Palace said that the priority was for all Allies to get to 2%.
International cooperation
Finally, the Allies will meet their partners from the world, the Indo-Pacific region and the EU, in particular the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, on the morning of Thursday 11.
“The closer that authoritarian actors align, the more important it is that we work closely with our friends in the Indo-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea)”, said Mr Stoltenberg.
“It is not a question of giving the impression that NATO would become a security alliance in Asia or of having some sort of block-to-block confrontation with China and its environment. (...) On the other hand, for several years now the Alliance has been assessing the impact of the emergence of China on Euro-Atlantic security”, said an Elysée Palace source, while relations with these countries are particularly important for the United States, the Summit’s host, in the context of the challenges posed by China.
The Secretary General announced that NATO will strengthen its practical cooperation with these countries with flagship projects on Ukraine, cyber security and new technologies, and will discuss how to work more closely on defence industrial production. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)