EU agriculture continues to be affected by a number of events, such as the climatic and geopolitical crises, which are putting pressure on the markets, according to the short-term market outlook (https://aeur.eu/f/c25 ) published by the European Commission on Friday 3 May.
EU cereal production in 2024-2025 should reach 278.5 million tonnes (+3% year-on-year), mainly thanks to better yields. Overall, EU cereal imports in 2023-2024 (July 2023-June 2024) could remain 17% above the five-year average.
In addition, improving the logistics of the Black Sea corridor is making it easier to export Ukrainian grain to the global markets. As a result, fewer Ukrainian grains are entering the EU.
Oilseed and protein crop production is set to rise in 2024-2025, driven by an increase in soya bean, field pea and broad bean production.
EU olive oil production is set to recover slightly in 2023-2024 (October 2023-September 2024) after a record low harvest last year.
Wine production in Italy and Spain fell considerably in 2023-2024 (August 2023-July 2024) due to unfavourable weather conditions. EU wine consumption continues its downward trend.
Milk and dairy products. Despite the steady decline in the dairy cow population (-0.5%), EU milk supply should remain relatively stable in 2024 (+0.4%). EU countries are experiencing contrasting situations, influenced in different ways by weather conditions or ongoing structural changes.
Meat products. The livestock sector is undergoing structural change, mainly due to changing consumer preferences. Per capita beef consumption in the EU in 2023 fell to 9.7 kg (-4.7% year-on-year). Consumption could continue to fall by 2.8% in 2024. EU beef production may continue to fall, which could sustain EU prices.
EU pigmeat production is experiencing a similar decline, falling by 6.6% in 2023. This reduction could slow at -0.4% in 2024.
Demand for poultry, as a cheaper source of protein, remains high. Per capita consumption in the EU rose by 3% in 2023 and could grow by a further 2% in 2024. Poultry imports also remain high. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)