On 7 July, Boris Johnson resigned the leadership of the Conservative party and announced that he would leave 10 Downing Street as soon as a successor was found. This news was ‘greeted with relief by a series of European political leaders’ (see EUROPE 12988/22), who saw it as an opportunity to revive the spirit of partnership. Although the European Commission was silent on the occasion, it reacted officially when Liz Truss was voted in by the members of her party on 5 September. President Ursula von der Leyen immediately sent her congratulations, adding: ‘I look forward to a constructive relationship in full respect of the agreements’ (see EUROPE 13014/17). In both cases, the most pressing comments came from Dublin.
Following the ritual meeting with the Queen in Balmoral, Liz Truss made her first speech as Prime Minister in London, pledging to help the country ‘ride out the storm’ with a major action plan involving tax cuts to grow the economy, a response to the energy crisis and public health issues as well as investments in public services. The plan was to be debated the next day in the House of Commons, where the Labour opposition, which is currently reported to be ahead in the opinion polls, would give her no quarter.
The configuration of the new government was announced on Tuesday evening. Its members are diverse in background, including the new Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, an MP since 2015 and minister since July 2019, until the downfall of Johnson. Unlike his new boss, he campaigned in favour of Brexit in 2016. None of this suggests that there will be any change in political line concerning relations with the EU.
Riding out the storm: the expression is apposite as storms literal and figurative hit the UK. Inflation stands at 10% and is predicted to rise even higher in the coming months. Wildcat strike action has begun in recent months (dockers, the postal service, railway workers, household waste collection, etc.), while Johnson extended his holiday. Many households rely on food banks to survive. Half of all children are living in a household in difficulties. There is a growing movement of people refusing to pay their electricity bills. It is referred to as the greatest social crisis for 30 years, in the wake of the ravages caused by the pandemic managed poorly by the Johnson government, which did not exactly set a shining example of sanitary discipline.
Brexit has failed to live up to the promises that it would reinvigorate the British economy. Over the period 2016 to 2020, many studies predicted that its impact would be negative. Would Brexit proper, which started in January 2021 following the eleventh-hour trade and cooperation agreement, prove them all wrong? It would not, as the Commission report published in March 2022 illustrated that trade between the EU and the United Kingdom had fallen, chiefly to the detriment of the latter (see EUROPE 12936/14). Compared to 2019, EU exports were down by 11.4%, while those of the United Kingdom fell by nearly 25%. Where EU membership had allowed the country to make 47% of its exports to the bloc, Brexit has acted as a deterrent to exporters’ propensity to export to the continent. Nor has this shortfall been made up for by trade agreements concluded or in planning stage with other partners elsewhere in the world. Furthermore, the United Kingdom is suffering from a lack of investment, which did not help it to overcome the public health crisis as successfully as the other industrialised countries. It now appears to be bringing up the rear in the G7 peloton. The impact of Brexit has also made itself felt in a lack of low-skilled labour, particularly in road haulage, catering and agriculture. The previous government argued that it was a temporary hitch and that a new national economic model was underway…
All indications are that Liz Truss will focus on problems at home, other than the war in Ukraine. On this point, the outgoing administration has shown total solidarity with its Western partners, including the European Union. But relations with it in the framework of the 2020 agreement are clearly not on the priority list. The Northern Ireland dossier, moreover, has reached a clearly conflictual dimension. Since early 2020, bilateral negotiations have been at deadlock; Truss, who replaced David Frost as ‘negotiator’ following the latter’s resignation on 21 democracy over differences in opinion with the Johnson line, was chosen for a reason.
On 11 March, the Commission adopted two legislative proposals aiming to protect the interests of the EU in the framework of the trade and cooperation agreement, including a regulation on retaliatory measures (see EUROPE 12909/28). On 13 June, the British government introduced a bill radically compromising the specific protocol, negotiated and signed in the framework of the agreement (see EUROPE 12970/16). Two days later, European Commission launched three infringement proceedings against the UK (see EUROPE 12972/3). On 21 June, the European affairs ministers condemned the British bill and expressed their solidarity with Northern Ireland (see EUROPE 12976/13). The members of the European Parliament followed suit on 6 July, stressing the serious nature of the situation (see EUROPE 12987/5). On 22 July, the Commission launched four new infringement proceedings, while the day before, the bill had made progress at the House of Commons (see EUROPE 12998/6). Finally, on 1 September, the MEPs examined the Kelly report on the future ‘retaliatory measures’ regulation, demanding involvement in the measures to be taken (see EUROPE 13011/6). To sum up this timeline, things are escalating.
As the United Kingdom has until 15 September to respond to the Commission in the framework of the above-mentioned infringement proceedings, the new Prime Minister will not be able to ignore Europe, however much the breezy rhetoric that won her the election suggests that the reverse will be true. If she is concerned for the international credit of her country, she will have no choice but to abide by the agreements concluded by the previous government of which, let us not forget, she was a member.
Boris Johnson has pledged her his full support. But what weight do his words carry? Three out of four of his countrymen no longer trust him. Looking back, it is hard to see how this silver-tongued – and occasionally fork-tongued – huckster, who is incapable of managing his own team (whose many defections sped his descent), ever managed to reach the pinnacle of power. The Conservative party saw him as its saviour, as he radiated the ability finally to get Brexit done. He got Brexit done, certainly, but what else has he achieved? In his final public message, he compared himself to Cincinnatus, returning to his plough after serving as dictator, then called back many years later to ‘save’ Rome. When you read about Cincinnatus’ life, you can see that there is a basis for the comparison and not a small one at that.
Renaud Denuit