Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require a significant reduction in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ideally by around 40-50% by 2030, given the large gap between the commitments and the impact of current climate actions, according to a new study published on 29 April in Nature Communications.
Coordinated by researchers from the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency PBL and the University of Utrecht, this study draws on the expertise of the CD-LINKS consortium, led by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), with partners from Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan, Russia and the United States
The researchers took stock of the main policies implemented in the G20 countries and regions and found that the impact of these policies would reduce GHG emissions by 2.5 to 5.0 Gt CO2 equivalent by 2030, i.e., by 5.5%, compared to a situation in which no climate policy and no climate objective were implemented.
The actual reductions are significantly lower than those promised in country contributions (NDCs). If fully implemented, NDCs would result in an additional reduction of about 5-10 Gt CO2 equivalent, or a reduction in emissions of about 17% by 2030, compared to a scenario with no emission reductions.
Although the study shows that the right policies are indeed being implemented in some cases, the authors point out that a delay in action would lead either to additional costs or to a complete failure to meet the Paris target. The gap between now and 2030 is estimated to be around 22 to 28 Gt CO2 equivalent and analysis of the scenario shows that, to achieve the global objective of the Paris Agreement in a cost-optimal way, a 40-50% reduction in global emissions is necessary.
This study may be supplemented by further contributions until 2023, when the first global review of the Paris Agreement will be carried out. The study: https://go.nature.com/3f4Z3lN (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)