Ireland was buffeted this week by Storm Lorenzo, but it was only the tail end of a hurricane that started elsewhere. The country won’t have as much luck escaping the gathering Brexit storm.
Rather than injecting hope and momentum into Brexit talks, the UK’s latest proposals to keep the Irish border open have dampened the mood (EUROPE 12340/8). MEPs in the Parliament’s Brexit steering group have “grave concerns” about the proposals, which they say fail to protect the EU’s single market as well as the fragile peace in Northern Ireland (EUROPE 12341/8). European Council President Donald Tusk said he was “unconvinced” after speaking to UK prime minister Boris Johnson. And European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said they were “problematic”.
The Irish government was even more downbeat, saying it could never accept a proposal that gives Northern Ireland an effective veto over the measures (a moot point since the country has been without a government for the last three years). The proposals even sparked a war of words between Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney and Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster, who accused him of “paving the way for a no-deal Brexit”.
In a new report published on Friday, Eurosceptic think tank Open Europe says no deal “will cause some disruption, but that much of this can be managed with the right set of responses” – which it says must include unilateral pledges by the UK government to avoid checks at the Irish border, maintain EU product standards and compensate companies and sectors hit by any EU tariffs.
But Bloomberg economists predict a recession in the UK, which the European Central Bank says would spill over into the euro area, especially to Ireland – which is heavily reliant on exports to the UK customers and access to a trade route to Europe passing through England and Wales.
“Chaos” is how one Irish businessman describes the aftermath of a potential no-deal exit. The Irish exporters’ association is predicting massive delays at Irish ports, job losses and company closures – even if there is a deal – given that many smaller businesses can’t afford to get Brexit-ready, let alone build up buffers against a potential ‘no deal’. And it’s not just companies: Northern Ireland's chief of police told Boris Johnson over the phone this week that it will be “nigh-on impossible” to police the border with the number of police officers he currently has.
For now, the EU is calling on the UK to fundamentally change the proposals, which effectively keep Northern Ireland aligned with most single market rules but take it out of the customs union. The UK prime minister proposes to solve this through tracking technology, pre-clearance for approved traders and limited checks at factories or at customs posts on both sides of the border, though at some distance from the winding 500 km line, which has around 300 crossings.
Diplomats will reconvene in a week to examine what they hope will a better offer. The UK’s lead negotiator, David Frost, is in Brussels today to make his case, while Mr Johnson is reportedly contemplating a mini European tour next week.
But so far both sides seem to be managing expectations rather than doing any serious negotiating. There is no light at the end of the “negotiating tunnel” – they haven’t even entered it. Theresa May looked on stony faced as her successor, Mr Johnson, told the UK parliament on Thursday that he had “made a genuine attempt to bridge the chasm, to reconcile the apparently irreconcilable, and to go the extra mile” with the latest Brexit proposals.
Norbert Roettgen, the chairman of the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee, tweeted that “If U.K. is serious about this, it must seek extension.” The UK parliament will be suspended (again) next week, from 8-14 October. Mr Johnson has until October 19, the day following a European summit in Brussels next week, before he has to ask for a Brexit delay. (Sarah Collins)