Global Focus programme director Rufin Zamfir said on Wednesday 22 May that the Western Balkan countries were subject to external influences. “No country is immune to malign influences”, he explained during the presentation of the study “Dimensions of Risk and Resilience in the Western Balkans: regional vulnerabilities to malign influence” at the Romanian Permanent Representation.
Based on a survey of national experts questioned about the situation of society, the economy, politics, foreign and security policy in the countries of the Western Balkans, Global Focus estimated that the least vulnerable country was North Macedonia, followed by Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“An economy that is not self-sufficient represents an increased risk from malign influences”, said Dimitar Bechev of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. In this area, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Kosovo are the most vulnerable.
A non-transparent political configuration at the level of the rule of law and its bureaucratic inefficiency also increase the vulnerability of States, in particular for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro. In the context of the discussions held during the presentation of the study: China and Russia, which are taking advantage of these instabilities, respectively by investing in infrastructure and monopolising energy supply. This demonstrates the existence of a dependent and easily “captured” state apparatus against a backdrop of special interests, according to the study.
While respondents seem to be aware of the problems affecting the Western Balkans, progress towards greater resilience is hampered by the influence of identity that often prevails in the country of origin. This symptom of ambivalent identities thus explains the presence and influence of “passionate communities” within countries.
While social media could be part of the solution, according to experts, they are mainly monopolised by these communities, the only solution residing in fact-checking communities, or independent media, which lack the means and visibility.
The study points to the lack of independence of the media and their demonisation alongside civil society and looks at the importance of ‘fake news’ (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro are the countries most at risk).
Reporters Without Borders' 2019 press freedom index shows an overall stagnation of the region compared to 2018, with the exception of the Serbia’s nosedive (from 76th to 90th place) and the rise of North Macedonia (from 109th to 95th place – see EUROPE 12148/19).
According to the study, traditional media are often led by illegitimate political or economic influences, demonstrating that the democratic transition in the region, where propaganda was common, did not result in media freedom. In the Western Balkans, the rejection of political confrontation and ideas – a major obstacle to resilience – confirms unequivocal information where everyone stands by their positions. Mr Bachev asserts, “The media and government have failed to demonstrate resilience”, unlike civil society and citizens.
In response to these challenges, democratic accountability and security cooperation in the region are two particular aspects of resilience for which researchers advocate maintaining a “strong [European Union] accession process”. The preconditions for EU accession are indeed a “major tool for progress in political commitment”.
For Mr Bechev, in Montenegro, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, in practice, “it was the EU's mediation with civil society that made it possible to fight political influence and corruption”. However, there is still resentment that the Union remains complicit in corruption.
To provide an alternative to vulnerabilities, researchers insist on unambiguous communication from the EU. For Marko Savković, programme director at the Belgrade Fund for Political Excellence, EU communication in the region often focuses on a discourse of ‘democracy’, but would benefit from “a greater focus on ensuring a better standard or standard of living”. See the study: http://bit.ly/2I7Hkuf. (Original version in French by Martin Molko – intern)