Brexit isn’t primarily about trade for the UK, but it is for the rest of the EU. And now that a no-deal scenario is heaving into view, it’s every EU member for itself.
The EU’s unity on Brexit has been truly impressive. There has been minimal disagreement on what to do about citizens, money or the UK’s participation in EU agencies. But it’s easy to sing from the same hymn sheet when you’ve only got one song to sing.
A no-deal Brexit is another matter.
The reason the European Commission separated Brexit talks into stages - past and future, or divorce deal and trade agreement - is because it knew the trade bit was going to be bitter and divisive. That’s why the EU has tried to delay those talks as long as possible, with transitions, extensions, and backstops, while Britain has tried to bring them forward, to expose any rifts.
A potential no-deal Brexit is exposing the EU’s divisions way too soon. Reports surfaced this week that some countries want the Commission to relax its no-deal contingency measures and allow for side deals with the UK – at least to keep planes, trucks, people and goods moving for a time after 29 March.
The Commission has denied any side deals are being done, insisting today that its strategy is “unilateral” and will "ensure a coordinated EU-wide approach in a ‘no deal’ scenario”. However, its spokesperson insisted that temporary emergency measures "can not, and will not, reproduce the benefits of membership".
French finance minister Bruno Le Maire hinted that France would find ways to keep aviation, fisheries and trade flowing in the event of no deal, but Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte admitted in Davos this week that the Netherlands isn’t prepared for that. And Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar feels his country is being “victimised” in Brexit talks.
It has been a tough week for the Irish, who have tried to walk back a statement by a Commission spokesperson that no deal will lead to a hard border on the island. This is not exactly the Commission’s position, but it is the truth even if no one can agree on what a “hard” border actually is.
The Commission has been deliberately evasive about this because it’s the truth, and because there are no solutions “imaginative” enough to solve it. Brexit created this particular monster and it’s not going away, whether there is a deal or not.
Meanwhile, get set for another dramatic showdown in Westminster next week. On Tuesday MPs will debate and vote on a Brexit Plan B after they voted down the withdrawal agreement in a vote last week (see EUROPE 12172). They are preparing a series of amendments including one calling for an extension to article 50 and another that would prevent a hard Brexit. (Sarah Collins)