What is the situation in Northern Ireland today? Demographically, there are almost as many Catholics now as there are Protestants, in contrast with the ratio last century. What’s more, the number of inhabitants not practising any religion and not identifying with either of the major communities is constantly on the increase, particularly among young people.
In the most recent general elections (2017), the DUP lost 10 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Unionist bloc (4 parties, including the DUP) won a total of 40 members, the nationalist bloc (2 parties, one of which is Sinn Fein) 39, with the remaining 3 parties (including the strongly inter-community Alliance Party) taking the other 11 seats. Following a financial scandal topped off by differences of opinion over the Gaelic language and marriage equality, the two largest parties – the DUP and Sinn Fein – failed to form a government. For the last two years, the province has been run by its civil service and the Assembly no longer even meets. Successive caretaker ministers, members of her Majesty’s government, have struggled to decide what approach to take.
To hold a referendum is legally possible, but it will all depend on pressure from the citizens, whilst the political parties squabble over something else. According to various opinion polls, there may be a comfortable majority in favour of reunification. It will be interesting to see what kind of turnout there is at the major ‘Civic Nationalism’ conference, to be held in Belfast this Saturday 26 January. The organisers, who belong to the ‘Ireland’s Future’ movement, do not intend to set up a new political party, but they will try to bring together senior politicians who are in favour of going to the people. And a consultation of this kind, “about the border”, is permitted under the 1998 Agreement. The caretaker minister would in fact be under an obligation to organise one if it should emerge beyond all doubt that most people would be in favour of removing it. The vote would have to be held firstly in Northern Ireland and then in the Republic, and a majority would obviously be required in both.
At its meeting of 29 April 2017 concerning the Brexit negotiations, moreover, the European Council indicated that in the event of reunification, the ‘new country’ born from it would automatically become a member of the EU, as was the case with the reunified Germany (see EUROPE 11778). It goes without saying, therefore, that the euro would become the currency of the former Northern Ireland, as the Republic is a member of the Eurozone.
For its part, just as much as the Dublin government has brought its influence to bear on the Twenty-Seven concerning the ‘backstop’ aiming to avoid a return to a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, it is just as scrupulously avoiding any proactivity concerning a possible reunification, as it is bound by the Good Friday Agreement. This ‘Zen’ attitude seems appropriate, in the view of certain observers, particularly those who feel that in view of the current powerlessness among the political ranks of its larger neighbour, Brexit will end up either not happening at all or in an extremely watered-down form.
Everything, therefore, is in the hands of Ulster civil society, the scale and speed of its ability to mobilise, to understand that the window of opportunity is before Brexit rather than afterwards.
We should note in passing that as well as the population of the border areas, all citizens of both Irelands already have a lot in common: European citizenship, shared bilingualism, folklore, mythology, gastronomy, a fondness for certain sports (rugby, Gaelic football, etc.), to say nothing of close economic, family and social ties.
The biggest problem will no doubt lie in the cost of the operation, given the differences in the standard of living between the two entities. Ulster would inevitably lose its British subsidies and the Republic would drop a few points of GDP. A European transition fund would probably be required, but the whole thing would be less of a challenge than the Federal Republic of Germany absorbing the former GDR.
If it comes about, reunification could allow for the province’s institutions to remain, at least for a transitional period; over the longer term, it would in any case have to give solid guarantees to what would then be a Protestant minority, including in the field of national governance.
The reasoning that currently prevails sees Brexit as a preamble to a possible consultation of the Northern Irish on the border and reunification, but the reverse is actually true. Irish reunification is now a prerequisite to take the situation out of stalemate and make an acceptable and orderly Brexit possible. Every day that passes makes this statement increasingly true, as Westminster reveals just how far out of its depth it has got.
Consequently, although it is a valid reason to ask for the fateful date of 29 March to be postponed, there is this brief but vital window to hold a referendum, not in the United Kingdom, but in Northern Ireland. And this is not something that the European Council could ever deny it.
In recent years, management speak has encouraged all things disruptive, transgressive, thinking ‘out of the box’. And when justified by circumstances, commentators, unlike diplomats, could also afford to go down this road, in black and white. The key to Brexit no longer lies in London or Brussels, but in Belfast, Derry, the whole of this area that has been poorly treated, where the men and women may at last stand up and be counted.
Renaud Denuit
See the first part of this editorial: EUROPE 12179