The EU27 ministers for European affairs will hold an initial debate, on Tuesday 16 June in Luxembourg, on the Negotiating Box with figures for the post-2027 European Union budget recently presented by the Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the EU.
This Negotiating Box, unveiled on Thursday 11 June, suggests a moderate reduction of around 2% in the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) (see EUROPE 13886/1). The very negative reception of this ‘nego box’ in northern Europe (see EUROPE 13886/2) confirmed that the issue continues to create a divide between the so-called ‘frugal’ or budget ‘moderniser’ countries and the ‘Friends of Cohesion’ countries.
This discussion on the broad figures will continue at the end of the week in Brussels at the European Council table. According to draft conclusions dated 12 June, it is expected to call on the next Irish Presidency of the Council of the EU to “take work forward”, notably by presenting a new proposal with figures with a view to the European summit in October. The aim is to reach a unanimous agreement “by the end of the year”.
As a sign that work is progressing on the future MFF, the ministers are expected on Tuesday to approve the EU Council’s negotiating positions on the functioning of each of the three main headings structuring the new budget. Thus, the ‘General Affairs’ Council is expected to endorse partial agreements in principle (without the budget envelopes) on the structures of the ‘National and Regional Partnership Plans’ (known as ‘NRPPs’ - see EUROPE 13888/26), the ‘European Competitiveness Fund’ (see EUROPE 13888/11) and the ‘Global Europe’ programme (see EUROPE 13888/8).
“These are important pieces of the budget puzzle. We are convinced that these compromises will make it possible to move the negotiations forward more broadly: from now on, leaders will be able to focus on the ‘nego box’, with figures”, a European diplomat also said.
Hungary. Moreover, the ‘General Affairs’ Council will conduct a further review of the Rule of law situation in Hungary under the procedure launched pursuant to Article 7 of the TEU Treaty and initiated in September 2018 (see EUROPE 12094/14).
According to the Cyprus Presidency, the ministers will hear the Hungarian authorities present their assessment of developments in the situation, as well as the measures undertaken to address concerns expressed by the Member States.
According to an EU diplomatic source, the signs have already been “very promising” since the Hungarian government led by Péter Magyar took office (see EUROPE 13847/1). It has submitted to the national parliament a package of measures aimed at strengthening the Rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary, as an essential condition for the unblocking of European funds.
European Council. Besides the debate on the post-2027 EU budget, the ‘General Affairs’ Council will prepare the EU27’s discussions on the other items on the agenda of the European Council, to be held in the wake of the G7 summit in Évian.
On Ukraine, according to draft conclusions dated 12 June, the European Council will welcome the official opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, and it may welcome the prospect of opening other clusters “as soon as possible”. The EU27 will also call for the swift adoption of the 21st package of sanctions against Russia over its military aggression against Ukraine (see EUROPE 13884/1).
As regards the Middle East, the European leaders are expected to reformulate their conclusions in the light of the agreement, announced on Sunday, between the United States and Iran on a ceasefire and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz (see EUROPE 13888/2). They will recall the EU’s willingness, with its EUNAVFOR ASPIDES mission, to “contribute to stabilising the region”.
As for the Middle East, the European leaders will “firmly” reject Israel’s announcement that it will control 70% of the territory of the Gaza Strip. They are expected to invite the Council of the EU to adopt new sanctions targeting violent settlers in the West Bank as well as “extremist ministers”, responsible for the mistreatment of European activists intercepted at sea by the IDF.
Other topics to be addressed concern enlargement, on which the EU27 will hold a strategic debate “in October”, deepening the single market, migration, the fight against drug trafficking and Ebola.
To see the draft European Council conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/mc7
European Semester. The ‘General Affairs’ Council will forward to the European leaders a cross-cutting note on how the Member States have implemented the country-specific recommendations on budgetary and economic policies.
To see the EU Council note: https://aeur.eu/f/mcn
Lastly, the ministers will be invited to endorse the programme of the next trio - Ireland, Lithuania and Greece - of rotating Presidencies of the Council of the EU (see EUROPE 13885/32).
To see the trio programme: https://aeur.eu/f/ma7 (Original version in French by Clément Solal, Nithya Paquiry and Mathieu Bion)