On Tuesday 10 March, European finance ministers are expected to ratify a revision of the multiannual budget programme for the period 2026-2030 submitted by the new Irish government at the beginning of January.
The programme now envisages the following growth path for annual public spending : 6.6% in 2026, 6.0% in 2027, 7.6% in 2028, 6.7% in 2029 and 6.4% in 2030.
Last November, the European Commission estimated that the growth in public spending in Ireland in 2025 would have been higher than the maximum recommended threshold, corresponding to an estimated deviation of 0.5% of Irish GDP.
The Irish economy remains solid. After a sharp rise of 10.5% in GDP in 2025 in anticipation of the US tariffs, wealth creation in Ireland is expected to return to 0.2% of GDP in 2026. The budget balance is expected to remain positive, at 1.0% of GDP in 2026, after 1.5% in 2025. Irish public debt is expected continue to fall, from 38.3% of GDP in 2024 to 32.5% in 2026.
The Council of the EU will invite Dublin to take new budgetary measures in order to respect the commitments made at European level.
See the revised multiannual budget programme for Ireland: https://aeur.eu/f/l0h (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)