On Thursday 16 October, the European Commission and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas proposed in their ‘Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030’ that the drone wall – renamed the ‘European Drone Defence Initiative’ – should be operational by the end of 2027.
“Drones are already redefining warfare. Having drone defences is no longer optional for anyone. Today we propose a new anti-drone system to be fully operational by the end of 2027. This will be done, of course, in close cooperation with NATO”, Ms Kallas announced to the media. NATO is also working to protect the Alliance’s eastern flank with ‘Operation Eastern Sentry’ (see EUROPE 13731/1).
As with the European Commission’s framework document of 29 September (see EUROPE 13719/11), the ‘roadmap’ highlights four flagship projects that “will benefit the security of Europe as a whole and will be mutually reinforcing”: - the European Drone Defence Initiative; - the Eastern Flank Watch; - the European Air Shield; - the European Space Shield.
The European Commission would like the European Council to approve these four flagship projects as priorities by the end of 2025, with the first two to be launched in the first quarter of 2026 and the other two in the second quarter.
Initial capability for the Drone Defence Initiative and Eastern Flank Watch should be achieved by the end of 2026, with full functionality of the drone project by the end of 2027. The European Commission is also proposing the launch of a Drone Alliance with Ukraine.
“Eastern Flank Watch will bring all the capabilities needed to defend this part of Europe together: counter-drone systems but also ground defence, air defences, maritime, and border management. The goal is to have this ready by 2028”, added Kaja Kallas.
According to the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, Poland and the three Baltic States have estimated the cost of detection, data management and anti-drone capabilities at around €1 billion for the four countries.
Capability coalitions already underway. The European Commission is also proposing the development of capabilities through Member States’ Capability Coalitions in the nine priority areas for action (air and missile defence; strategic enablers; artillery systems; military mobility; cyber, AI and electronic warfare; drones and counter-drones; ground combat; missile and ammunitions; maritime).
“Given the urgency” of the situation, the ‘roadmap’ calls for the establishment of coalitions (in which Ukraine could participate), the designation of leaders and co-leaders, and respective implementation plans up to 2030 to be in place by the first quarter of 2026.
“There is a high level of interest in this: there are not five or six countries per coalition, but more than ten, or even twenty. Each coalition is already led by a responsible country and sometimes by three co-leaders. Some have already made progress and have already met to discuss how it will be organised internally”, explained a European source on Thursday. The coalition on drones, led by the Netherlands and Latvia, met on Wednesday 15 October.
The European Commission would like to see the first projects launched in the first half of 2026.
“One hurdle that we must overcome is joint procurement which is still far too low. So, we are upping the ambition to 40% of defence spending by 2027”, announced Mrs Kallas.
According to Mr Kubilius, this spending should reach 55% in Europe, compared with around 40% at present.
Developing the European defence industry. In order to develop the necessary capabilities, the ‘roadmap’ promotes the development of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB).
Next month, the European Commission intends to present its ‘roadmap’ for the transformation of European defence. By the end of the year, it intends to establish Tech Alliances for Defence, “connecting tech innovators with defence users in Member States to help them address critical capability gaps”.
The European Commission will broaden the strategic dialogue with industry and organise the first annual Summit of the Defence Industry by mid-2026.
Next year, it will also present an overview of the industrial capacity ramp up needed to ensure reliable supply for the agreed capability areas, an analysis of the risks associated with strategic dependencies and bottlenecks in critical raw materials, and an action plan with mitigating measures for the European defence industry’s international supply chains.
Strengthening military mobility and the single market. In adopting the view that military mobility is an essential element in guaranteeing European security and defence, the European Commission will be presenting a new package on the topic by the end of the year, which it hopes to see adopted within a year.
In the first half of 2026, it also intends to identify and prioritise specific military mobility ‘hotspot’ projects along military mobility corridors. The EU has identified more than 500 projects with investment needs of around €100 billion. By the end of 2027, it is proposed to set up an EU-wide military mobility area “with harmonised rules and procedures” and a network of land corridors, airports, seaports and support elements ensuring the unhindered transport of troops and equipment.
The European Commission is also advocating a true European defence equipment market, calling in particular for the adoption of the defence-related ‘omnibus’ simplification packages to be completed by the end of 2025.
An Annual Defence Readiness Report will be presented by the Commission and the High Representative to each October European Council. It will “allow Leaders to review collective progress on this basis and provide strategic guidance to Defence Ministers”.
The Commission specifies that it will act as a “facilitator”, with decisions resting with the Member States. The European Defence Agency (EDA) might also be given a leading role. Prior to the publication of the ‘roadmap’, some delegations had expressed concern about the risk of a proliferation of bodies and processes, particularly with regard to the collection of data regarding the capacities of Member States.
No new funding announced. No new funding is announced in the ‘roadmap’, which merely notes the instruments that are already available, in particular the ‘SAFE’ loan instrument, and stresses that the next Multiannual Financial Framework for the period 2028–2034 could give pride of place to defence and space.
However, the European Commission is proposing, in collaboration with the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund, to create a fund of up to €1 billion to support the rapid growth of defence-related companies and projects by the first quarter of 2026. At least 50% of SAFE will be disbursed by the third quarter of 2028.
According to Mr Kubilius, €300 billion remain in the current budget, including €100 billion in loans.
See the ‘roadmap’: https://aeur.eu/f/j0f (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)