A joint study by Dr Sehrish Usman (University of Mannheim) and economists from the European Central Bank, published on Monday 15 September, reveals that macroeconomic production losses due to extreme weather events (heat, droughts, floods) during the summer of 2025 are estimated at €43 billion in 2025 and €126 billion by 2029. This represents 0.26 and 0.78% of GDP in 2024.
So, “the real costs emerge gradually, as these events affect lives and livelihoods through multiple channels that go well beyond the initial impact”, explains researcher Sehrish Usman.
The analysis combines meteorological data from June to August 2025 with extreme event impact coefficients taken from a study published in the European Economic Review.
In all, 96 regions experienced heatwaves, 195 droughts and 53 floods. Southern Europe is most exposed to heatwaves and droughts, while the northern and central countries suffer less damage, but are increasingly exposed to flooding.
The study stresses that the estimates are conservative, not taking into account combined effects (such as heat with drought) or other phenomena such as forest fires. It also reminds us that adapting to climate change is expensive, but that the cost of inaction is even higher.
To see the study: https://aeur.eu/f/ig1 (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)