Although this point is not officially on the agenda for the European summit on Thursday 26 June, France has reportedly asked for discussions on the 2040 climate target to be included at EU level, which will be the subject of a legislative proposal from the European Commission on Wednesday 2 July.
Several Member States could therefore raise this point as part of a working dinner on competitiveness, without it being addressed separately.
According to a European source, a growing number of Member States believe that the timing is not right to agree on an ambitious target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 (compared with 1990 levels), as presented by the Commission in its February 2024 Communication (see EUROPE 13344/1).
Such a situation could therefore once again call into question the presentation of the 2040 target on 2 July. By extension, the 2035 target, which the EU is due to present in its ‘Nationally Determined Contribution’ (NDC) ahead of COP30 in Bélem in November, could finally be dissociated from the EU’s 2040 trajectory (see EUROPE 13657/7).
“A number of Member States want to know how the Commission sees it, what its analysis is, and what the economic, technological and international conditions are for achieving it”, asking that the envisaged emissions reduction trajectory “remains beneficial for European competitiveness”, explained another diplomatic source.
A third European source did not rule out “possible tensions”.
The presentation of the legislative proposal to include the EU’s 2040 climate target in European climate legislation has been postponed several times and is currently under discussion regarding what flexibility could be granted to achieve the target, such as the inclusion, within a certain percentage, of international carbon credits (see EUROPE 13661/7).
The European Commission is currently represented at the Bonn Conference on Climate Change (SB 62), which opened on 16 June (see EUROPE 13663/19), in preparation for COP30. A European official said that pressure was being felt from many national delegations for the EU to show leadership. This includes the presentation of an ambitious NDC.
See the European Council’s conclusions of 24 June: https://aeur.eu/f/hjx (Original version in French by Pauline Denys with the editorial staff)