On Thursday 26 June, apart from the Hungarian Prime Minister, the Heads of State or Government of the countries of the European Union are expected to reiterate their message of “unwavering” support for Ukraine, promising to do their utmost in economic terms (€30.6 billion in aid by 2025), political and military, to put Kyiv in a strong position for possible peace negotiations with Russia, while maintaining pressure on Moscow to limit its ability to finance the war effort it has unleashed.
According to draft European Council conclusions dated 24 June, the 26 countries will call on the Member States to “step up their efforts to meet Ukraine’s urgent military and defence needs”. In particular, this could be achieved by ‘frontloading’ the aid provided by the G7 countries’ loans against the profits generated by the Bank of Russia’s assets. A rapid interinstitutional agreement on the future ‘EDIP’ programme to strengthen the European defence industry will also contribute to this.
After a remote discussion with their Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, the European leaders, who have just returned from the NATO Summit (see other news), are expected to call on the EU Council to finalise negotiations on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia (see EUROPE 13656/1).
This could happen on Friday 27 June at the level of the ambassadors of the Member States to the EU (Coreper), according to a European source on Wednesday 25 June, despite the opposition still being voiced by Hungary and Slovakia, who are linking this issue with that of ending Europe’s dependence on Russian gas (see EUROPE 13666/4).
“There is broad agreement, but there are still problems over the [Russian] oil price cap and Slovak and Hungarian difficulties with energy supplies”, confirmed a second source.
While the Commission is maintaining its proposal to further reduce the ceiling on the export price of Russian oil, several Member States, like other G7 countries (United States, United Kingdom, Japan), are not convinced that the time is right, given the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which are driving up the price of a barrel of crude oil.
According to another diplomatic source, the EU27 could also take a unanimous political decision alongside the Summit to extend the sanctions already adopted against Russia for an additional six months. In exchange, Hungary will have ensured that no further political steps are taken during the six months of the Polish Presidency of the EU Council, which would have enabled progress to be made in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.
According to the draft conclusions, the European Commission is of the opinion that Ukraine has met all the criteria required to open the first chapter of negotiations with Kyiv on fundamental values.
See the European Council’s draft conclusions dated 24 June: https://aeur.eu/f/hjx (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion with the editorial staff)