On Tuesday 19 November, the European Defence Agency (EDA) announced that EU Member States are expected to spend €326 billion on defence in 2024, equivalent to 1.9% of GDP. In 2023, they spent €279 billion (an increase of 10%), but five Member States reduced their spending (Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Croatia and Slovakia).
“It seems that 2% will not be enough to meet the challenges we face. More measures will have to be taken”, stressed the High Representative of the Union, Josep Borrell, at the end of the EU Foreign Affairs’ Council in ‘Defence’ configuration. In 2014, the leaders of the NATO countries had pledged to devote 2% of their countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) to defence, a figure that has become symbolic.
“Europe must do more and faster to increase its defence capabilities, not only to support Ukraine, but also for its own security”, added Mr Borrell.
According to the EDA, by 2024, Member States are also expected to be devoting €102 billion to investment in research, development and the acquisition of new defence capabilities.
Increase in sales for European industry
For its part, the Aerospace, Security and Defence Association (ASD) announced on 19 November that its European defence companies (including those outside the EU) had sales of €158.8 billion in 2023, 16.9% higher than in 2022 (an increase of 15.8% for military aeronautics, 17.7% for the maritime sector and 17.7% for the ground sector). Military exports rose by €57.4 billion or 12.6% in 2023.
Micael Johansson, Managing Director of Saab and Vice-Chair of the ASD Board of Directors, said that European nations needed to work together more and source more from European suppliers. So, while welcoming the EU’s desire to see greater European funding for defence in the next multiannual financial framework, he acknowledged that the Member States had to shoulder their responsibilities together if they were to create the scale. This will be the only way to be more relevant and resilient, according to Guillaume Faury, Chair of the ASD and CEO of Airbus.
According to Mr Faury, orders are mainly for short-term replenishment and not for medium- and long-term investment. He added that Europe was up against giants and that everything had to be done to be competitive on a global scale. In particular, this involves investment. According to Mr Johansson, while progress has been made, long-term commitments are needed if there is to be long-term investment. He also highlighted the difficulties in accessing finance and the position – not clear enough, in his view – of the European Investment Bank.
The two men welcomed the Draghi report, which estimates that €500 billion is needed for defence.
Approval of the CARD report. At the Steering Board of the European Defence Agency, the European defence ministers also approved the report on the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) for 2024.
According to the report, “despite increased defence spending, national efforts alone are insufficient to allow for EU Member States’ armed forces to adequately prepare for high-intensity warfare. Greater cooperation is needed. EU collaboration must accelerate to align national efforts with agreed objectives, converge with NATO and reduce fragmentation, and strengthen Europe’s security”, the report states.
The report therefore urges Member States to address short-term operational needs and long-term priorities at the same time.
In addition, they must invest in line with the EU’s agreed capability development priorities for 2023. “This includes replenishing stockpiles, modernising ground and air defence systems, and enhancing interoperability. Investments in strategic enablers such as secure and resilient cyber defence, command-and-control (C2) systems, cyber and space situational awareness, and satellite communications, are equally crucial”, the report stresses.
Finally, to strengthen the European defence technological and industrial base and reduce dependence on external suppliers, Member States need to cooperate more closely and develop secure EU defence supply chains, according to the document.
Strengthening cooperation. In addition, several Member States have signed political letters of intent to develop the four projects.
Eighteen Member States (Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Germany, Denmark, Greece, Finland, France, Croatia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden) have declared their intention to collectively fill urgent capability gaps in the short term by procuring counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS), ground-based air defence (GBAD), and ammunition.
Seventeen Member States (Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Finland, France, Croatia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Slovenia) intend to aggregate their needs in view of procuring these systems together in the short term, and work on their further development over the medium to long term.
Fourteen Member States (Belgium, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Finland, France, Croatia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovenia) have confirmed their willingness to jointly improve their capabilities through shared procurement of equipment, establishment of data-sharing platforms, and the development of common doctrines, training, exercises, and facilities.
Lastly, seven Member States (Belgium, Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal) declared their intention to develop the next generation of vessels for the European Combat Vessel (ECV), a multi-purpose modular surface combat ship. They plan to harmonise requirements, develop a business case, and prepare for joint procurement by 2040. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)