On Monday 14 October in Luxembourg, EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Ukraine. Ministers will first discuss the situation on the ground in Ukraine and the country’s demands with their new Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha.
As EU leaders will do later in the week at their summit, ministers will discuss the EU’s military support for Ukraine. They may discuss the release of €6.6 billion from the ‘European Peace Facility’, which cannot be disbursed due to Hungary’s veto since May 2023.
According to several sources, the European External Action Service has proposed that Member States make voluntary contributions to get around Hungary’s veto. A European diplomat explained that this was still a “very preliminary proposal”, which would involve using a provision of the Facility allowing voluntary contributions. Although initially intended for third countries, it could be applied to the 26 Member States (except Hungary), which would pay a voluntary contribution. The overall budget, currently €6.6 billion, would however be reduced by the Hungarian contribution. This proposal will have to be adopted unanimously and raises “a whole series of questions about the operation of the instrument in the longer term and budgetary issues” for certain Member States, which would have to have their parliaments vote on voluntary contributions, according to this diplomat.
The renewal of the mandate of the European Union Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM) for a further two years is also set to be discussed, as is Ukraine’s energy situation.
Ministers will discuss possible new sanctions against Russia and the fight against circumvention of the measures with the EU’s special envoy for sanctions, David O’Sullivan.
The EU Council is also expected to adopt targeted sanctions against 14 Iranian individuals and entities. According to a European diplomat, these include airlines, companies involved in the production and transfer of missiles, and individuals involved in the proliferation of weapons in the Middle East and Russia.
On Friday, a senior European official revealed that the new Iranian foreign minister had confirmed to the High Representative, during a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, that his country had supplied short-range (250 km) rockets and denied that they were ballistic. The minister had not used the term ‘missiles’.
The Council is also expected to revisit the peace plans on the table: the Ukrainian plan and the one proposed by China and Brazil.
Middle East. European foreign ministers will take stock of the situation in the Middle East. They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, in the West Bank and also in Lebanon. “All dimensions will be addressed”, predicted one source. Ministers are also expected to reiterate their call for a ceasefire and access for humanitarian aid, their support for the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 and use firm language regarding Iran.
Ministers are set to discuss support to be provided to the Lebanese army and UNIFIL, in which 16 EU Member States are participating.
On Thursday, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell condemned the Israeli army’s bombardments of UNIFIL soldiers, describing them as an “inadmissible act, for which there is no justification”. “Two Blue Helmets have been wounded and this is unacceptable. Any deliberate attack on peacekeepers is a grave violation of International Humanitarian Law and (...) Resolution 1701: Israel has an obligation to respect both. Full accountability is needed”, he added.
Two Lebanese soldiers died in new strikes on Friday. According to a senior European official, a statement on this subject by the High Representative on behalf of the EU was being prepared.
The humanitarian aspect will also be discussed. The escalation of violence in Lebanon prompted the European Commission to release €40 million in emergency humanitarian funding for vulnerable populations in late September (see EUROPE 13493/24) and early October (see EUROPE 13496/14).
Mr Borrell has repeatedly condemned the obstruction of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territories, notably during a visit to the Rafah crossing in early September (see EUROPE 13478/10).
UNICEF also announced the launch of a new polio vaccination campaign in the Gaza Strip on Thursday 10 October. An initial campaign in early September enabled the vaccination of around 560,000 children.
United Kingdom. Over lunch, ministers will hold an informal exchange of views with their British counterpart, David Lammy. This is the first exchange of this kind since Brexit. The discussion will focus on security and defence issues. “This is an initial discussion to identify what the British side might like to see in terms of re-engagement with the EU on foreign affairs and defence issues”, explained a European diplomat. He added that it would be a matter of taking a preliminary look at the areas in which the EU and the UK could cooperate more concretely.
Current affairs. Ministers will briefly discuss the situation in the Horn of Africa, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Venezuela.
Africa. Ministers will discuss the situation in the Horn of Africa, namely the humanitarian crisis in Sudan caused by the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (see EUROPE 13500/27) and the situation in Somalia, where tensions with Ethiopia persist (see EUROPE 13475/27). They may discuss the financing of the African Union mission in Sudan.
On Thursday 10 October, the presidents of Eritrea, Somalia and Egypt agreed to strengthen their cooperation on regional security issues at an unprecedented tripartite summit in Asmara (Eritrea), thereby worsening relations with Ethiopia.
Moldova. Ministers will discuss the presidential election and the referendum on EU membership on 20 October, at a time when the country is experiencing interference from Russia. They may adopt sanctions against people seeking to destabilise the country.
Georgia. The Council is set to discuss the situation in the country, following the adoption of several laws deemed to be repressive, leading de facto to a halt in Georgia’s accession process, and just a few days before the legislative elections on 26 October.
Armenia/Azerbaijan. Ministers will discuss tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to one source, the pre-COP29 period in Baku is a window of opportunity for a peace agreement.
Venezuela. The Council will discuss the situation in Venezuela, reiterating that it does not recognise Nicolas Maduro as the democratically elected president and that it supports the democratic opposition (see other news). The deteriorating human rights situation and regional attempts to find a solution are also expected to be addressed.
In addition, at Germany’s request, the coordination of Europe’s joint message on the outcome of the US elections may be discussed. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Bernard Denuit)