The heads of state or government of the countries of the European Union will draw the first lessons from the results of the recent European elections on Monday 17 June at an informal dinner. They are expected to test the first names for the top European jobs, with a decision not expected until the European Council on Thursday 27 and Friday 28 June.
They will note in particular that sovereignist and nationalist political forces have consolidated in Europe, as in Italy with the success of the Fratelli d'Italia party led by the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, or that they have made progress in several Member States, notably with the victory of the Rassemblement National in France, where snap elections have been called.
At European level, this trend could result in a shift in EU action towards policies designed to provide greater protection for Europeans, for example in the management of migration. It could then be reflected in the strategic agenda for the period 2024-2029 to be adopted by the European Council at the end of June (see EUROPE 13432/1).
However, this shift to the right of the political spectrum does not seem likely to upset the pro-European majority at the centre, made up of the Christian Democrats of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Social Democrats of the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the ‘Renew Europe’ platform bringing together centrists and liberals.
This new political situation will have an impact on the decisions that the EU27 will take, by a reinforced qualified majority (21 Member States representing 65% of the EU population), on appointments to three senior European positions, namely the Presidency of the European Commission, the Presidency of the European Council and the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. In accordance with the European Treaties, the European Council must take account of the results of the European elections when proposing to the European Parliament the political personality to preside over the Commission in the next legislature.
The EPP claims the Presidency of the Commission
Having emerged victorious from the polls, the EPP is claiming the presidency of the Commission and putting forward the candidacy of the German Christian Democrat, Ursula von der Leyen, who campaigned to win a second mandate as head of the EU institution. This approach has the merit of bringing to life the process of the European political parties’ head of list candidates (‘Spitzenkandidaten’), which aims to accentuate the parliamentary nature of the European elections. This is the message that the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, whom the EPP is seeking to re-elect for a further two-and-a-half-year mandate, is expected to convey to the EU27 on Monday.
Bearing in mind that the person appointed by the European Council will have to win the support of an absolute majority (361 votes in 2024) of MEPs for him or her, the Christian Democrats believe that it is possible to establish a pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-Rule of law majority in the European Parliament, at least with the Social Democrats and Liberals. The latter two formations have already sent out signals in this direction (see EUROPE 13429/1), while setting conditions for their participation, such as refusing to cooperate with the far right.
Weakened by their results in 2019, the environmentalists of the ‘European Green Party’ have also expressed an openness to joining a pro-European majority, provided that the ‘European Green Deal’ is not weakened. The issue of phasing out internal combustion engines in new vehicles sold in the EU after 2035, a measure agreed at EU level but which the German CDU campaigned against, could be a sticking point in any discussions with the Greens.
In addition, in order to secure a majority for Mr von der Leyen, the Christian Democrats might be tempted to seek votes from sovereignist forces that meet the three criteria mentioned above. For the leader of the EPP, Germany’s Manfred Weber, these include members of the Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s ODS party and Fratelli d'Italia. This support could only be tacit because Ms Meloni has campaigned to send the left-wing parties back into opposition and the left refuses to cooperate with the far right.
At the European Council table, almost half of Europe’s leaders belong to the Christian Democrat family. It therefore seems unlikely that the EPP will not obtain the Presidency of the Commission.
French President Emmanuel Macron is said to be the main obstacle to the appointment of Ms von der Leyen, even though he drew the former German minister’s name out of a hat 5 years ago and she has just proposed introducing trade barriers to Chinese electric vehicles, as France is demanding. The name of former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is circulating as an option, but he is not supported by any European party.
In July 2019, after a marathon European summit lasting almost 3 days, the European Council appointed Ms von der Leyen to head the Commission. Numerous EPP leaders had opposed a prior agreement reached by some of their counterparts, including former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka. This agreement provided for the presidency of the Commission to be awarded to the Dutch Socialist Frans Timmermans (see EUROPE 12287/1).
Discussions will inevitably have taken place on the fringes of the G7 summit in Italy, but the leaders present do not want to give the impression that an agreement has been drawn up in advance. “In the past, agreements concocted at the G20 or G7 have created more tension than solutions”, noted a diplomatic source on Tuesday 11 June.
The European Council to the Social Democrats and the High Representative to the Liberals?
For all the positions to be filled, a complex political, geographical and gender balance needs to be found.
If the EPP wins the Presidency of the Commission, the PES will demand the Presidency of the European Council, a position it has never held. Although his name has been mentioned in a court case involving his former right-hand man, the former Portuguese Prime Minister, António Costa, has the upper hand, and the current Prime Minister has already announced that he will support him. Consequently, the post of High Representative would go to a liberal leader. The name of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is being floated, as she has already indicated that she is open to a post as European Commissioner.
To conduct these informal negotiations at the European Council, the EPP has appointed the Greek and Polish Prime Ministers, the PES the Spanish Prime Minister and the German Chancellor and the Renew Europe platform the Dutch Prime Minister and the French president.
If Ms von der Leyen is nominated at the end of June for a second mandate at the head of the Commission, the European Parliament could elect her on Thursday 18 July in Strasbourg. In the meantime, she will have to negotiate the broad lines of a five-year work programme based on the European Council’s strategic agenda and present the structure of the future College of Commissioners to MEPs. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)