The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, confirmed, on Wednesday 31 January, that the Europeans would not be able to send one million rounds to Ukraine by March 2024, contrary to what had been promised in March 2023.
According to Mr Borrell, while some Member States have not yet submitted their data, the Europeans have sent 330,000 rounds, mainly from stockpiles, i.e. a third of the target set in March 2023. “Between now and March, we expect 200,000 more”, he explained at the end of the informal meeting of European defence ministers, bringing the total, according to Mr Borrell, to “524,000” rounds, through destocking and individual and joint purchases, i.e. 52% of the target.
“Member States place orders. By the end of the year, planned deliveries will reach more than one million rounds”, he promised, quoting the figure of 1.1 million.
The needs are urgent. “Ukraine needs more ammunition. There is a big imbalance between the fire capacity from one side and the other, and this gap has to be filled”, said Mr Borrell, who nevertheless wanted to remain positive.
The Dutch minister, Kajsa Ollongren, reiterated that the target of one million rounds in one year was “a really ambitious goal”, but that several objectives had been formulated, including an increase in the budget, an increase in capacity and an increase in deliveries. An opinion shared by her Estonian counterpart.
Like the European Commissioner for Internal Market, Thierry Breton, the High Representative pointed out that European industrial production has risen sharply in the space of a year. Earlier in the day, Mr Breton announced that the commitment made to have a production capacity in Europe of at least one million 155 mm rounds by the end of March 2024 had been fulfilled.
“We are already at this level today”, he stressed. According to him, European production will reach around 1.4 million rounds by the end of the year and 2 million by 2025. Production is estimated to have risen by 40% in one year. “A significant increase in production also means a significant increase in deliveries to Ukraine”, stressed Ms Ollongren, although 70% of European production would go to third countries.
According to the High Representative, although they have not all communicated their commitments, the Member States have budgeted a minimum of €21 billion for military assistance to Ukraine by 2024. “That’s as much in one year as it used to be in two years”, said Mr Borrell. Since the beginning of the war, military support from the EU and its Member States has reached €28 billion.
“These are not insignificant figures, they show the EU’s commitment to supporting Ukraine”, stated the Belgian minister, Ludivine Dedonder, while acknowledging that this was “certainly not” enough.
Mr Borrell also announced new objectives for the EU training mission, which has already trained 40,000 people. “We have agreed to add a further 20,000 people, for a total of 60,000”, he said. According to him, this target will be met by the end of the summer.
The ministers also discussed the new arrangements for the ‘European Peace Facility’, to move from a destocking logic to one of supporting the production of the European defence industry. “It has to do both – be a way of funding the support to Ukraine, and a way of pushing the European industry to increase its capacity”, according to Mr Borrell.
Military support for Ukraine will be discussed at the Extraordinary European Council on 1 February (see other news). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)