EU heads of state or government will attempt to reach a unanimous agreement on the revision of the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) at an extraordinary European summit in Brussels on Thursday 1 February.
Twenty-six Member States wish this revision of the MFF to include macro-financial assistance to Ukraine to the tune of €50 billion (€17 billion in grants and €13 billion in loans) over the period 2024-2027. However, on the eve of the summit, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, who vetoed the agreement at the December European summit (see EUROPE 13314/2), continues to set out his conditions for an agreement involving twenty-seven Member States.
Without this new European aid, the stability of the Ukrainian economy, which has been under attack from Russia for almost two years, could be threatened as early as March.
The Belgian Presidency of the EU Council has made the revision of the MFF its priority (see EUROPE 13335/20), but the discussions between the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper) have so far not revealed the slightest hint of flexibility on the part of Budapest.
On the contrary, Hungary’s transactional attitude to the terms and conditions of this financial aid to Ukraine is causing concern among certain national delegations. On Monday, some media outlets even mentioned possible retaliatory measures against Budapest if the blocking persisted.
An agreement of the twenty-seven is still the preferred option. “Securing agreement is vital for our credibility - and not least for our commitment to provide steadfast support to Ukraine. The onus lies squarely on us to find a solution and to deliver it”, declared the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in a letter of invitation sent to his counterparts on Wednesday. He reiterates his desire to see a twenty-seven agreement reached.
According to several European diplomats, all the Member States, including Hungary, share this desire for a twenty-seven agreement. However, Mr Orbán is calling for an annual meeting to decide unanimously on whether to continue implementing the ‘Ukraine Facility’ (see EUROPE 13331/26), the instrument that will be responsible for providing financial aid and ensuring that the EU’s financial interests are respected (see EUROPE 13325/1).
This Hungarian option is a “red line for almost all the delegations”, said a diplomat on Wednesday at the end of a final Coreper meeting. He added: “If a twenty-seven solution is not possible, we will have to move forward with twenty-six”. “Ukraine needs predictability”, said another European source.
In order to reach an agreement, it was proposed to the Hungarian authorities that an annual political debate be held, without however granting Budapest any right of veto.
Negotiation framework. Apart from the Ukrainian question, the negotiating box, as presented in December by Charles Michel, remains the main working basis (see EUROPE 13314/2).
The budget increase, already informally approved by 26 Member States, includes €2 billion for border management, €7.6 billion for neighbourhood policies, €1.5 billion for the Strategic Technologies for Europe platform, €2 billion for the flexibility instrument and €1.5 billion for the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve (SEAR).
The package on the table is therefore still made up of redeployments totalling €10.6 billion and new money totalling €21 billion, i.e. three times less than the European Commission’s initial proposal in June (see EUROPE 13205/1).
Pressure from the European Parliament On Wednesday, the leaders of the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe, Greens/EFA and ECR political groups in the European Parliament urged European leaders to break the deadlock.
“We expect the European Council to agree on the economic and financial support proposed under the Ukraine Facility that will help Ukraine maintain essential services to its citizens, such as schools, hospitals and social security, and will support the country’s economic and social recovery and reconstruction. Further delays or annual vetoes are not an option”, they stressed in a joint press release. (Original version in French by Bernard Denuit)