The defence ministers of the Allied countries are meeting in Brussels on Thursday 15 and Friday 16 June to discuss support for Ukraine once again and to prepare for the Alliance Summit to be held in Vilnius in mid-July.
Ahead of their meeting, they will hold discussions with their Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksiy Reznikov, within the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, chaired by the US Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin.
Mr Reznikov is expected to brief the ministers on the current counter-offensive and explain what equipment his country needs.
On Wednesday 14 June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hoped for further pledges of support from the Allies. The day before, while he was in Washington, the United States announced new support worth $325 million, including air defence capabilities, additional ammunition for high mobility artillery rocket systems, artillery shells, anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles.
The discussion on support for Ukraine will then continue at a NATO-Ukraine Commission, which will also be attended by Mr Reznikov.
The Allies should also discuss a multi-year support package, with substantial funding so that Ukraine can defend itself in the long term. “We must ensure that, when the war ends, there are credible arrangements in place for Ukraine’s security”, explained Mr Stoltenberg.
At the Vilnius Summit, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend, the leaders of the allied countries are expected to announce an aid package that is both practical, in the short and long term, and political, although the question of Ukraine’s membership of NATO has not yet been decided. Questioned on the subject, the Secretary General said that discussions between the Allies were under way, expressing confidence that the leaders “will find a good solution at the Summit”.
Working on ammunition
The ministers, in the presence of the Ukrainian minister and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, will also hold talks with small, medium and large defence producers from across the Alliance to discuss how best to speed up production, secure supply chains and remove obstacles to cooperation.
According to Mr Stoltenberg, the Allies will examine a new defence production action plan, which should be adopted at the Vilnius Summit. “This plan aims to rapidly address shortfalls in our stocks. It builds on $1 billion in joint procurement just for 155-millimetre ammunition now underway this year”, he pointed out, adding that the plan also aimed to improve the interoperability of the Allies’ ammunition and equipment and to support the transatlantic defence and industrial base. The EU, for its part, has also taken steps to replenish stocks and encourage the joint purchase of ammunition.
Allied ministers should also decide, on the basis of an exceptional review of national capability targets for ‘battle-decisive munitions’, to increase these targets “substantially”, according to the Secretary General. “This will strengthen both our ability to defend ourselves, and to support Ukraine. And it will send a clear signal to industry to boost production”, he added. “We can’t go on like this”, he says, “stocks are getting lower and lower”.
Strengthening NATO’s deterrence and defence
The defence ministers will discuss ways of further strengthening NATO’s deterrence and defence with “new regional plans to defend Allied territory, with forces and capabilities and high levels of readiness”, according to Mr Stoltenberg.
He said that regional plans called for a new NATO force structure, which would provide more than 300,000 troops at high readiness, backed up by substantial air and naval power. Command and control arrangements will also be adapted to implement these plans.
Ministers are also expected to agree to the creation of a new NATO Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure within Maritime Command in the UK. “This Centre will increase our situational awareness and enhance maritime presence for deterrence and defence”, said the Secretary General.
The ministers are also expected to discuss the issue of a new commitment to defence investment at the Vilnius Summit. The deadline for investing 2% of GDP in defence is 2024, and some Allies, including the Americans, are hoping for a new commitment on this point. “This commitment should make clear that investing 2% of GDP on defence is not a ceiling to reach, but a floor we must build on”, explained Mr Stoltenberg.
Finally, the Allies will hold a meeting of the nuclear planning group, while Russia has suspended its participation in the new START treaty and is expected to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus in the near future. The ministers will therefore discuss the nuclear aspects of the current security environment and the ongoing adaptation of NATO’s nuclear deterrent.
In addition, Sweden’s membership of NATO could be raised at the ministerial, as a tripartite meeting between Turkey, Sweden and Finland was held on Wednesday 14 June. While many of the Allies are hoping that the country can become the 32nd member of the Alliance at the Vilnius Summit at the latest, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned on Wednesday that his country will not necessarily “meet” Stockholm’s “expectations” at the Summit. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)