The European foreign affairs ministers will meet on Monday 22 May in Brussels, once again with a busy agenda, including the situation in Ukraine, the Horn of Africa and the Western Balkans.
Ukraine. A few days after their discussion in the Gymnich (see EUROPE 13181/1) and their meeting with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba (see EUROPE 13182/19), the ministers will again discuss the situation in Ukraine, both in terms of support, including military, for that country, pressure on Russia and raising awareness of the situation in Ukraine among third countries.
They are also expected to discuss accountability, a tribunal form, which is still not agreed upon among Europeans, solidarity lanes and the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the EU. The possibility of a peace summit on Ukraine’s peace formula, which could take place in July in Denmark, could be raised.
On Wednesday, Member States’ ambassadors to the EU were not yet in a position to take decisions, either on the new - eighth - tranche of aid from the European Peace Facility (EPF) of €500 million, the targeted sanctions linked to the conviction of Russian political opponent Vladimir Kara-Murza (see EUROPE 13163/18) or on the 11th sanctions package.
Hungarian foreign affairs minister Péter Szijjártó announced that his government would not approve the next tranche of the EPF or new sanctions until Ukraine removes the largest Hungarian bank, OTP, from its list of international war sponsors (see EUROPE 13181/1). According to a senior European official, it is not clear whether this concerns the whole bank or just its Russian branch, which represents 1% of the bank. OTP is not the only European entity on the Ukrainian list.
Discussions on the mechanism to sanction third countries that assist in sanctions circumvention are also continuing.
Horn of Africa. Ministers will have a further exchange of views on the Horn of Africa in the light of the latest developments, in particular the extremely worrying deadly clashes in Sudan with no end in sight.
The Horn of Africa, plagued for years by conflict, food insecurity and instability, remains a strategic region for the EU, and one for which a reinforced integrated strategy was adopted on 10 May 2021 (see EUROPE 12717/3).
Ministers previously discussed this issue last June, confirming their willingness to support progress in Somalia and Ethiopia (see EUROPE 12975/7).
While the EU is ready for a conditional and gradual normalisation of its relations with Ethiopia (see EUROPE 13168/2), the month-long war in Sudan between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces has raised fears of a major humanitarian crisis and increased the threat of general destabilisation in the region (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan).
Ministers are expected to discuss the humanitarian and security aspects of this crisis and EU support for further regional and international efforts to achieve a sustainable ceasefire beyond the warring sides’ declaration of commitment to protect civilians recently achieved through the US and Saudi Arabia’s mediation (see EUROPE 13181/5). They are also expected to exchange views on how to encourage the establishment of a civilian government.
Western Balkans. The Member States’ foreign affairs ministers will also have lunch with their counterparts from the six Western Balkan countries. Discussions are expected to include how the EU can support the containment of Russian interference in the region and how the Western Balkan countries can be in alignment with EU sanctions against Russia (see EUROPE 13181/3).
“We need Serbia and Bosnia to be much more open, especially with regard to the sanctions policy. We know that Russia is trying to extend its influence in the Western Balkans and undermine stability there”, commented one European diplomat.
In this context, the ministers are also expected to take the opportunity to stress the strategic importance of the region and maintaining dialogue with the Western Balkan countries. “It is a question of the EU’s credibility to keep an open perspective, but also to show that we are a demanding partner”, the same source stressed.
Some Member States are also thought to want to review the reforms carried out by the governments of the Western Balkan countries. However, the EU27 ministers are not expected to tackle the issue of enlargement head on (see EUROPE 13171/23). “This is not the place to talk about enlargement. This is the place to talk about requirements and other issues, such as circumventing sanctions, even if they have to be encouraged to implement reforms”, said a European diplomat.
The Member States have not planned to discuss this issue, but it could be brought up at the request of the ministers of the Western Balkan countries. “There will inevitably be hints, demands from the ministers and the 27 will have to respond. Our position is very clear, as soon as we can make progress in the negotiations, we will do so”, added a European official.
On the matter of reforms, some ministers from the Member States may also wish to reflect on the situation in the countries of the region, including regarding the rule of law in Serbia.
Iran. The situation of human rights in Iran and for European nationals, following the execution of Swedish-Iranian national Habib Chaab (see EUROPE 13177/17), the release of a Frenchman and a French-Irish national, should be addressed quickly. The Council is expected to adopt an eighth package of sanctions against five individuals and two entities in connection with human rights violations.
Other topics. The High Representative of the Union, Josep Borrell, could briefly mention the conference on Syria, scheduled for 15 June, and, in parallel, Syria’s reintegration into the League of Arab States and its consequences for EU-LAS relations.
The meeting between the President of the European Council and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on 14 May, the improvement of the strategy towards the Caucasus countries, as well as the visit of the Portuguese and Belgian ministers to Tunisia on behalf of the High Representative on 10 and 11 May, may also be discussed (see EUROPE 13181/26).
Russia’s opposition to Estonia’s presidency of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) could also be mentioned.
CSDP/Defence. The ministers are also expected to launch the Common Security and Defence Policy civilian mission in Moldova, EUMP Moldova, which they approved in April (see EUROPE 13168/3).
Furthermore, the Council is expected to adopt the new CSDP civilian pact. “It is a key strategic document that aims to strengthen the Union’s civilian crisis management missions in the field of CSDP”, said the Swedish Presidency of the EU Council. This new pact includes 20 commitments with concrete actions for the Member States and the European institutions. These include a discussion on civilian CSDP at least once a year, greater adaptability of missions (including decision-making), more active work on climate change challenges, possible support to partner countries in the face of foreign interference and manipulation of information, and the strengthening of the Civilian Planning and Conduct Capability.
Conclusions on cyber defence should also be adopted.
Finally, the ministers are also expected to adopt 11 new projects within the framework of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), which Denmark is joining.
Qualified majority. The Council will be preceded by an informal breakfast on the extension of qualified majority decision-making for the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The aim is to extend this decision-making within the framework of the Treaty. On 4 May, nine Member States launched the ‘Friends to foster Qualified Majority Voting’ group (see EUROPE 13175/8). Romania is reported to want to join the group, as is Sweden, once its EU Council Presidency is over. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Aminata Niang and Thomas Mangin, with Léa Marchal)