EU leaders are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine on Thursday 20 October, followed on Friday by a debate on China and relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Iran.
On Thursday, EU leaders will meet again via video conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In his letter of invitation, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, announced a discussion on EU27 assistance to Ukraine “and in particular to address Ukraine’s immediate needs to prepare for this winter, as well as the sustainability of our assistance in the medium and long term”.
According to a new draft of conclusions dated 18 October and obtained by EUROPE, the EU will continue to provide strong political, military and financial support, including to cover Ukraine’s liquidity needs. It will step up its humanitarian response in preparation of the upcoming winter.
On Wednesday 19 October, the Commission announced the mobilisation of the EU’s strategic reserve to deploy emergency stocks of shelter units in Ukraine, worth €62.3 million, as well as additional humanitarian aid of €175 million for the most vulnerable people in Ukraine and Moldova.
The European Council is expected to invite the Commission to come up with a more structural solution for providing assistance to Ukraine, and for the EU Council to work on this. “It will be necessary to discuss more structured, predictable and sustainable solutions” to help the country financially, a European diplomatic source said. The Commission will reportedly make proposals on the subject in early November.
“Ahead of the International Expert Conference in Berlin on 25 October 2022, the European Council discussed the governance and financing of these efforts, including reforms”, the draft conclusions state as well.
Leaders will also condemn “in the strongest possible terms” the recent indiscriminate Russian missile and drone attacks targeting civilians. In a debate in the European Parliament on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described attacks on civilian infrastructure as “acts of pure terror” that are “clearly aimed at depriving men, women and children of water, electricity and heating as winter approaches”.
The European Council is expected to take note of Ukraine’s efforts to hold accountable those responsible for war crimes committed, “including the crime of aggression against Ukraine” and invite the High Representative of the Union, Josep Borrell, and the Commission to explore possibilities to ensure full accountability.
As the EU adopted its 8th package of sanctions against Russia in early October (see EUROPE 13037/2), the European Council will reportedly stress the importance of ensuring full implementation of the measures, preventing circumvention and facilitating circumvention. It could call on the international community to align itself with the EU sanctions.
According to an EU source, the Commission and Member States are working on possible additional measures, “but the scope of these measures remains to be seen”. “We have adopted so many sanctions that the scope is limited”, the source noted.
Poland and the Baltic States could present new proposals for sanctions during the European Council, including on diamonds, uranium, transport and energy sectors.
The European Council is also expected to warn Belarus that the EU remains ready to impose new sanctions on Belarus quickly, if it becomes involved in the war alongside Russia. “The mood in the room is to prepare sanctions”, said a European source. The question, the source says, is about the right timing to adopt them.
Iran. Iran will reportedly be briefly mentioned. Unlike previous drafts, the new draft conclusions state that the European Council condemns the “unjustifiable and unacceptable use of force” by the Iranian authorities against peaceful demonstrators. It welcomes the sanctions adopted on Monday 17 October against the perpetrators of these serious human rights violations (see EUROPE 13044/12).
“The European Council calls on Iran to immediately stop the violent crackdown against peaceful protestors and release those detained, in full respect of their civil and political rights”, the text adds.
While the draft conclusions make no mention of Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine, according to an EU source, the issue is expected to be highlighted by leaders as the EU works to adopt new restrictive measures against Iran in the coming days, including against a drone company, because of “evidence” of such use.
Asia. After the foreign ministers on Monday (see EUROPE 13044/14), it will be the turn of the heads of state or government to discuss the EU-China relationship at the summit. The way Beijing is evolving on the international scene is prompting the EU to rethink its relationship.
The European Council on Thursday and Friday will provide “a direction”, according to an EU source, but not adopt written conclusions at this stage.
The draft conclusions only mention that the leaders “held a strategic discussion on European relations with China”.
The EU must, in any case, position itself on China and consider how it wants to engage with it, according to an EU source. One way to do this could be to deal with some issues at European level, leaving others to the capitals, the same source said.
After China, the leaders will discuss relations with ASEAN. They will thus prepare for the EU/ASEAN summit of 14 December in Brussels (see EUROPE 13004/9). It is an opportunity for the EU to strengthen the strategic partnership with ASEAN and to “underline (its) mutual commitment to international law, norms and standards”, according to the draft conclusions.
See the draft conclusions of the European Council: https://aeur.eu/f/3oj (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Léa Marchal, with the editorial staff)