EU Foreign Ministers will meet on Monday 17 October in Brussels, with the situation in Ukraine once again at the centre of their discussions.
Ministers are expected to discuss EU support for the country, which has faced numerous attacks on civilian infrastructure in recent days.
After a video conference with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, who will give an update on the situation and his country’s expectations, the Ministers are expected to agree on the establishment of a military assistance mission (EUMAM Ukraine). According to a senior European official, the aim is for the mission to be operational by mid-November. In the meantime, the operational details of the mission will need to be further clarified.
The objective is to train 15,000 soldiers over two years, with collective or specialised training (medical, logistics, sniper, etc.). “There will be a wide range of training courses” provided in the Member States, explained one diplomat. The mission, with an annual budget of €50-60 million, according to another diplomat, will be headquartered in Brussels in the Military Planning and Conduct Capability, with local headquarters in Poland and Germany.
The Council is also expected to agree to the release of a further €500 million from the ‘European Peace Facility’ to provide lethal and non-lethal equipment to Ukraine. According to several sources, this new tranche will also cover the repair and maintenance of equipment already delivered to Ukraine. With this new support, €3.1 billion of the Facility will benefit Ukraine.
The Ministers could also take stock of the implementation of the eight packages of sanctions against Russia already adopted and the issues of accountability for war crimes and global awareness, notably in the context of the vote on the UN General Assembly resolution of 12 October condemning the illegal Russian annexation of several Ukrainian regions. They could also take into account the latest Belarusian announcements about alleged Ukrainian threats and the fact that Russian troops are stationed in the country.
The Council could also address the reconstruction of the country, a few days before the Berlin conference on 25 October.
China. Ministers will discuss the EU’s strategy towards Beijing as the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party begins on Sunday. This event should enable President Xi Jinping to obtain a third term as head of the country and lead to the re-composition of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Political Bureau, which runs the Communist Party.
The EU Ministers’ discussion on Monday will pave the way for the Heads of State or government, who will also discuss the subject in Brussels on 20 and 21 October.
The EU is seeing a change in its relationship with China, which is increasingly becoming a competitor. There is a need to rethink the EU’s strategy towards Beijing and send a clear and unique message, according to one EU diplomat.
The Ministers will reaffirm the need to reduce the EU’s dependence on China, to ensure fair competition with Chinese players and to cooperate with partners in the region, according to several sources. It also seems crucial for the EU to try to engage with Beijing wherever possible, such as on climate change.
The Ministers are also expected to recall the importance of trade relations with China, which is the EU’s largest trading partner with almost €700 billion worth of goods traded in 2021.
Current affairs. The Ministers are expected to discuss a number of other issues in the near future.
Caucasus. The Council could adapt the mandate of EUMM Georgia to allow it to be deployed on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. On 6 October, sending such a mission was agreed between the leaders of the two countries (see EUROPE 13038/3). On Friday 14 October, the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, announced that an advance team of European observers was arriving in Yerevan. The task of this EU technical appraisal mission is to prepare for the deployment of EU observers on the Armenian side of the border. According to a senior European diplomat, the final mission could include 40 observers. The aim is for deployment before the end of October.
The High Representative of the Union Josep Borrell spoke by telephone with Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov on 10 October and with his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan, on 14 October, to take stock of the ongoing technical preparations for the deployment of the mission.
Iran. Ministers may adopt targeted sanctions against those responsible for the death of Mahsa Jina Amini and the repression of peaceful protests in Iran (see EUROPE 13037/5).
According to European diplomats, the discussion will provide an opportunity to take stock of other elements of Iran’s destabilisation, including the use of Iranian drones in Russian attacks on civilians in Ukraine. “If it is found that Iran has delivered drones to Russia since the ban, this will call for a retaliation”, an EU source said, while explaining that for the moment it was not clear whether this was the case or not. No decision is expected on Monday.
Mr Borrell met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian on Friday 14 October to convey the EU’s position that the violent repression of peaceful demonstrations must stop immediately, that demonstrators must be released and that access to the internet and accountability are necessary.
Burkina Faso. Ministers will take stock of the situation following the second military coup in Burkina Faso by putschist captain Ibrahim Traoré, who became Head of State on 5 October after overthrowing Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, himself the author of the military coup of 24 January.
The EU had immediately denounced this coup d’État within the coup d’État (see EUROPE 13034/13). The new authorities agreed on 4 October to respect the previous authorities’ commitment to ECOWAS regarding the transition timetable and a return to constitutional order, which the EU “took note of” (see EUROPE 13037/22).
“We want to express our solidarity with France and see how to continue our cautious engagement with the authorities”, a diplomatic source said on Friday 14 October. On the same day, National Conferences were held in Ouagadougou. “We will see what their partnership intentions are”, said a European diplomat.
Ethiopia. Following their discussion in June (see EUROPE 12975/7), the Ministers will take stock of the situation in the country, which has deteriorated considerably since fighting resumed in Tigray on 24 August (see EUROPE 13033/16). The objective is to see how to support the African Union mediation.
“We have positive feedback that the government and the authorities in Tigray would accept this mediation. In such a complex country, nothing can be solved by military means. We want to support a political process”, said a senior European official on Friday, stressing the High Representative’s commitment to this.
“We are trying, together with international actors, to find a political solution on the basis of the parties’ commitments”, a diplomatic source added.
Lebanon. The Council could reiterate its concerns about the political stalemate in Lebanon, as the parliament has still not elected a new president, just days before the end of the current president’s term. It could also recall its expectations of the country, especially in terms of reforms.
The Ministers could also take stock of the preparations for COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt) from 6 to 18 November 2022.
At the request of Croatia, Ministers will discuss the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the elections on 2 October (see EUROPE 13036/27) and, at the request of Greece, the Turkey-Libya hydrocarbon agreement (see EUROPE 13035/33).
Finally, the Council is expected to adopt conclusions on the Trade and Sustainable Development Review (TSD). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Léa Marchal and Aminata Niang)