The European Council is expected to reiterate the EU’s strong humanitarian, financial, economic, military and political support for Ukraine in the face of a Russian military invasion at the EU summit on 30-31 May.
“The EU is unwavering in its commitment to help Ukraine exercise its inherent right to self-defence against Russian aggression and to build a peaceful, democratic and prosperous future”, EU leaders are expected to stress, according to draft European Council conclusions dated 24 May.
The EU27 are expected to announce, among other things, continued support for its humanitarian, liquidity and reconstruction needs.
The EU will “urgently provide Ukraine with further exceptional macro-financial assistance in the form of loans and grants of up to €9 billion in 2022”, the document says, referring to the European Commission’s recent suggestion (see EUROPE 12955/2).
But, according to one diplomat, “it is not yet clear whether Ukraine will receive grants or loans”. “It will probably be a mixture of both. The discussion is open”, he noted on Wednesday 25 May. Moreover, the diplomat said it was unclear whether the leaders would give their final approval to the aid at the summit. Some Member States want to see the European Commission’s formal proposal, expected at the beginning of June, before taking a position.
On Tuesday, a French diplomatic source at the Élysée Palace said that Member States were “very broadly” in favour of granting loans to Kyiv, because “Ukraine continues to honour its debt payment commitments”. “If we were to make donations, we would be sending signals of mistrust to the markets”, the source said.
The war is said to have caused a decline of 30-50% in Ukraine’s GDP and 50-80% in the country’s tax revenues. The IMF estimates Ukraine’s monthly financing needs to be €4 billion by the end of 2022.
Stressing that the reconstruction of Ukraine will require comprehensive support to get the country back on its feet, EU leaders say the EU and its Member States are ready to play a “major role” in this regard through the creation of a dedicated “platform” of European donors. They warn that support for reconstruction will be linked to the implementation of reforms. The Élysée mentioned respect for the principles of the Rule of law, the fight against corruption, and a normative agenda to converge with the acquis communautaire.
The European Council is also expected to express its support for exploring the possibility of using frozen Russian assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.
According to the draft conclusions, EU leaders are expected to commit to revisiting the EU membership applications of Ukraine, but also Moldova and Georgia, at the June summit. They also stress the need to provide the necessary support to Moldova, which is facing interrelated energy and economic crises and migratory pressure as a result of the war.
“The EU and its Member States remain committed to welcoming and providing safety to people fleeing Ukraine, including by assisting neighbouring countries”, the conclusions add.
Possible discussion on sanctions
The European Council could also discuss the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which has still not been agreed (see EUROPE 12949/15).
According to a European diplomat, the issue will be on the table. Yet in a letter to European Council President Charles Michel dated 23 May, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán asked that the issue of sanctions against the Kremlin “not be considered”, arguing that solutions to outstanding issues - related to his country’s energy dependence on Russian oil - should be found before sanctions are adopted.
Mr Orbán said he was “convinced that discussing the sanctions package at the level of the leaders in the absence of a consensus would be counterproductive” and “would only highlight our internal divisions without offering a realistic chance of resolving the differences”.
On 25 May, Mr Michel said he remained confident that a unanimous agreement by Member States on a Russian oil embargo would be reached by the European Council. The issue is expected to be discussed again by the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU on Sunday 29 May.
Condemnation of Russian abuses
The European Council will also call on Russia to immediately end its “indiscriminate” attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure and to withdraw its army from Ukraine immediately and unconditionally.
Moscow must also allow immediate humanitarian access and safe passage for all affected civilians, leaders will warn. International humanitarian law, including the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War, must be fully respected, the European Council will add, also calling on Moscow to immediately allow the safe return of forcibly displaced Ukrainians to Russia.
“Russia, Belarus and all those responsible will be held accountable in accordance with international law”, the draft text to be adopted by the EU27 also reads.
See the draft conclusions of the European Council: https://aeur.eu/f/1t1 (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Léa Marchal and Mathieu Bion)