Instead of an increase of 4.7% in 2022, the volume of world merchandise trade should grow by only 3%, according to the estimates of the World Trade Organization (WTO) published on Tuesday 12 April. Merchandise trade is then expected to grow by 3.4% in 2023.
In her statements to the press, the organisation’s Director-General stressed the economic impact of the conflict in Ukraine, particularly for low-income countries: “Smaller supplies and higher prices for food mean that the world’s poor could be forced to do without. This must not be allowed to happen. This is not the time to turn inward. In a crisis, more trade is needed to ensure stable, equitable access to necessities”, she said.
She also recalled that these projections were based on several simulations, given the lack of data on the economic impact of the conflict leading to “projections that are less certain than usual”.
World GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2022, according to the WTO. This represents a decline of 1.3 percentage points compared to previous estimates. In 2023, GDP growth is expected to be 3.2%, which is close to the average growth of 3% between 2010 and 2019. See details of the projections: https://aeur.eu/f/184 (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)