The Heads of State or Government will discuss the reinforcement of Russian military forces along the border with Ukraine at their European Council lunch on Thursday 16 December.
“Any further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences in response and severe cost in response”, warned European Council President Charles Michel in his letter of invitation to leaders. A message which, according to a draft conclusion dated 13 December, should be taken up by the EU27.
The European Council should discuss what measures could be taken in the event of Russian aggression, and even what measures could be taken to deter Russia from acting. An EU diplomat explained that there was some coordination on the measures that could be taken, but that the details would not be discussed by the leaders.
“What seems to me inescapable is that, if there were to be a Russian military intervention on that border, very extensive economic sanctions would be the response that should be expected”, explained one European diplomatic source, while another recalled that “the EU has instruments to make this price very high”.
Furthermore, according to a senior European official, leaders should not take a position on the Russian president’s demand for immediate negotiations with NATO and the US on security guarantees for Russia. He recalled that not all EU Member States are members of the Alliance and vice versa.
According to a European diplomatic source, the discussion on the subject is expected to be “long and difficult”.
According to the draft conclusions, the European Council should stress the urgent need for Russia to defuse the tensions caused by the military build-up along its border with Ukraine and its aggressive rhetoric. It should also reiterate its full support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. As at every European Council in June and December, leaders are expected to agree to renew economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months.
Belarus. The leaders will also discuss Belarus, including the instrumentalisation of migration by the Lukashenko regime (see other news). In their conclusions, they could reiterate their call for the immediate release of all political prisoners and an end to the repression of civil society and independent media. The European Council should also reaffirm the democratic right of the Belarusian people to elect their president in new, free and fair elections.
Mediterranean neighbourhood. Leaders could also look at the Mediterranean neighbourhood. Reaffirming its determination to renew and strengthen the EU’s partnership with its southern neighbours “with a view to tackling common challenges and taking advantage of shared opportunities through strengthened cooperation”, the European Council should invite the Council and the Commission to accelerate work on the new Agenda for the Mediterranean (see EUROPE 12654/8).
China. Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nausėda could mention the tensions between his country and China due to the opening of a Taiwanese office in Vilnius. On Wednesday 15 December, the Lithuanian diplomatic delegation left China.
Defence. Following their discussion at the Brdo summit in October 2021 (see EUROPE 12806/3), the leaders will again address the defence of the EU. The Union “will take more responsibility for its own security and defence, pursue a strategic course of action and increase its capacity to act autonomously”, the conclusions should state (see EUROPE 12850/24).
The leaders will also provide guidance for the ‘Strategic Compass’, the final version of which is expected to be adopted in March 2022. They should call on their ministers to take forward work on an ambitious ‘Strategic Compass’, “which sets out a common strategic vision over the next decade and makes best use of the entire EU toolbox, including civilian and military policies, tools and instruments”.
The Heads of State and Government will also discuss how to further strengthen cooperation with NATO. In their view, the eagerly awaited third declaration on EU-NATO cooperation should be developed in an inclusive manner, address new threats and challenges and include resilience, cyber and hybrid threats, climate change and security, space and emerging and disruptive technologies as areas for enhanced cooperation.
See the draft conclusions: https://bit.ly/3pYPkUg (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)