Preparations for the Eastern Partnership Summit in December and a strategic discussion on how to deepen the EU’s relations with the States in the Gulf region in the future will dominate the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Luxembourg on Monday 18 October.
The political situation in Nicaragua and the crisis in Ethiopia are the other two main topics formally scheduled for discussion at this Foreign Affairs Council meeting, which will be chaired by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.
Eastern Partnership. The Ministers will work on the preparation of the next ministerial meeting on the Eastern Partnership on 15 November and the summit on the same subject in December.
The aim is to bring the EU partners closer together politically and economically, while taking into account the major differences between the six countries. It will also be important to look at how to build resilience in these States, whether it be in terms of governance, Rule of law, or security. In this sense, the issue of reforms will be at the heart of the matter, according to a European source.
Ministers should also discuss solidarity with these countries in terms of vaccines.
Furthermore, one of the thorny issues that will be discussed during this exchange concerns Belarus. As a European diplomat points out, “the stability of some countries is not good. And Belarus is at the top of the agenda”. There will be no Minister from that country at the November ministerial meeting, as relations have been limited to the technical level.
The EU is currently working on its fifth set of sanctions against the Alexander Lukashenko regime (see EUROPE 12783/2). It hopes to adopt this set of sanctions in November, according to an EU source.
Gulf. A discussion on the Gulf was originally scheduled for September and had to be postponed. This will be an opportunity for the Ministers to take stock of the situation in the region. They want to discuss ways for the EU to engage broadly and develop stronger relations with the Gulf countries.
Ministers are expected to discuss how best to increase trade and investment flows between the EU and the Gulf.
They are also expected to discuss the recent Cooperation and Partnership Conference held on 28 August in Baghdad (see EUROPE 12779/22), which they consider “structuring” and “promising”, according to a European source.
The discussion will also prepare the joint communication on the Gulf partnership, which should be adopted in the first quarter of 2022.
The issue of the Vienna Agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme (JCPOA) will be discussed after the visit of the Political Director of the European External Action Service, Enrique Mora, to Tehran on 14 October. According to a European source, the Iranians have told the EU that they are not yet ready to commit to conclusions in Vienna, although they do intend to do so later. A meeting in Brussels is planned between Europeans and Iranians “in the coming days” to discuss the texts to be submitted to Vienna, according to the same source.
Ethiopia. During a working lunch, the Ministers will again discuss the humanitarian situation, which has continued to deteriorate with the ongoing conflict since their discussion in July (see EUROPE 12760/13).
The humanitarian crisis in Tigray and other parts of Ethiopia has worsened, as despite the government’s unilateral ceasefire of 28 June, the parties to the conflict have launched new offensives. Referring to a “tragedy in Tigray” and the many obstacles to the delivery of aid, a European official said on Friday: “We are working on a ceasefire and on a future political process”.
Sanctions against those responsible for human rights violations, which have been under consideration since March (see EUROPE 12683/4) and were recently called for by the European Parliament (see EUROPE 12807/23), could be addressed, but this is not the subject of Monday’s debate, according to a diplomatic source.
“Sanctions are on the table. They are a foreign policy tool. We believe that the EU should use all instruments, from dialogue to possible sanctions. We are waiting for the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights expected on 1 November and we will advise whether we can consider sanctions accordingly”, commented a European diplomat.
The diplomat added that, for the time being, it is mainly a matter of conveying to the new government the often-repeated messages about humanitarian access, inclusive dialogue and accountability for human rights violations.
Nicaragua. During the working lunch, the Ministers will have a preliminary exchange of views on the deteriorating situation in the run-up to the 7 November parliamentary elections, which President Daniel Ortega has locked-in to ensure victory. The High Representative, Josep Borrell, wants to hear the Ministers’ views on what the EU should do in response to this election, how it might react to this authoritarian regime.
“No opposition has been allowed to run, this election will not be free or democratic. It could be subject to some form of public condemnation and refusal to recognise the results”, said a senior European official.
The Council of the EU recently decided to extend until October 2022 the sanctions against 14 regime officials, including the President’s wife and son, for violations of human rights and the Rule of law (see EUROPE 12809/26).
Current topics. Ministers will take stock of the formation of the new government in Tunisia. The aim is to evaluate this development and its potential follow-up.
The High Representative is expected to address the crisis in Afghanistan, in the wake of the virtual G20 summit where he expressed his readiness to help the population, but did not recognise the Taliban (see EUROPE 12810/2, 12810/3). The EU has announced that it will increase its direct aid to Afghans in the country and neighbouring countries to €1 billion to prevent the humanitarian, economic and social collapse of Afghanistan. Some officials from the European External Action Service (EEAS) visited Kabul to identify possibilities for a limited presence in the capital.
At Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council, Ministers will discuss the EU-Balkans Summit in Brdo on 6 October (see EUROPE 12806/1). They will discuss in more detail the recent tensions between northern Kosovo and Serbia.
Climate diplomacy. In the run-up to COP26 on climate (Glasgow, 31 October-12 November), Ministers will discuss how to intensify outreach with third countries, in particular the G20 countries, to increase their ambition, especially in terms of financial participation in the €100 billion a year pledged to developing countries until 2025 to support their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Briefly, the meeting will discuss Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Varosha in Cyprus in July. Here again, the discussion will consist of the evaluation and follow up of the implications.
EU Council conclusions. Monday’s meeting should mark the adoption, without debate, of the EU Council’s conclusions on Operation EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang and Léa Marchal with Mathieu Bion)