The EU's European Affairs Ministers will hold an unusual annual dialogue on the Rule of law on Tuesday 19 October in Luxembourg.
In addition to a horizontal discussion of the general state of the Rule of law in the European Union, including democratic safeguards during the Covid-19 crisis, there is also likely to be a discussion on the recent judgment of the Polish Constitutional Tribunal that challenged the primacy of European law (see EUROPE 12808/1).
Although the issue has not officially been put on the agenda, several countries have already announced that they will raise the subject.
The issue is also expected to come up at the EU summit on Thursday 21 and Friday 22 October in Brussels, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte having already announced that he will discuss the subject with leaders. He is likely to be supported by other leaders of EU countries that are known for their firm stance on respecting European values and the Rule of law.
It is by no means certain that the European Commission will be in a position on Tuesday to share its analysis of the Polish Constitutional Tribunal judgment, or indeed to indicate what action it intends to take.
For some delegations, it is more than likely that an infringement proceeding will be launched since the Polish Tribunal’s judgment is not helping an already tense situation. The legal route, however, is long and does not address the immediate challenge of the Polish recovery plan, which the Commission wants to be in line with the Rule of law.
European summit. In preparation for the EU summit, ministers are also expected to work on the draft conclusions of the European Council. Topics on the agenda include soaring energy prices, the coordination of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the external dimensions of the EU's migration policy, trade, and digital and foreign policy issues.
The European Council conclusions on migration will be a follow-up to the summit in June when EU leaders asked the European Commission to prepare action plans along with eight third countries. They are set to welcome this work by the Commission and – in a very clear reference to Belarus – they are also set to make reference to the fact that third countries are using migrants as political instruments.
On Friday, the European Border and Coast Guard Corps (Frontex) reported that the number of irregular arrivals in the EU had increased by 68% over the first months of 2021 compared to the previous period (which was, however, impacted by pandemic-related restrictions) and had increased by 47% compared to 2019.
EU leaders will also review travel recommendations in the EU in light of the health situation, but are not expected to take any major decisions on the issue, according to one diplomat.
Energy prices, though, as well as the EU's digital transformation and foreign policy issues are set to remain the most important topics of the summit.
See the draft European Council conclusions dated 11 October: https://bit.ly/2YMmbSL
Conference on the Future of Europe. Finally, the General Affairs Council will take stock of the progress made by the Conference on the Future of Europe. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Mathieu Bion)