Meeting at a summit in Brussels on Thursday 10 December, EU leaders expressed great caution, even pessimism, about the possibility that the European Commission and the British government will reach an agreement on the future post-Brexit relationship by Sunday.
The President of the European Council announced that the discussions of the EU27 on Brexit would be short, with a briefing by Ms von der Leyen. “We trust the Commission” and “we are defending European interests”, Charles Michel briefly commented.
The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, did not even mention the issue when they arrived at the summit, while the Swedish Prime Minister, Stefan Löfven, was more pessimistic. “There has been no progress in the last few days from what I hear”, he said. “We have always said that we should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It's a difficult situation”, he added.
For his part, Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel hoped that the negotiations would be concluded “by the end of the year”. Brexit “is not good for anybody, for us, but it is even worse for the United Kingdom”, he said, hoping for an agreement where both parties seal “an amicable divorce where we limit the damage”.
The day before, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had failed to resolve the points of disagreement at a dinner in Brussels, agreeing that the “positions (remained) far apart”.
Their respective negotiators therefore resumed work “immediately” on Thursday and will present an overview of the possibilities for an agreement by 13 December, when Ms von der Leyen and Mr Johnson will take stock of the situation and reach a “decision”.
New preparations for a ‘No deal’
In addition, on Thursday the Commission presented new measures to prepare for the absence of an agreement on the future EU/UK relationship on 1 January 2021.
While trade in goods and services will fall under the rules of the International Trade Organization with quotas and tariffs, some sectors do not have an alternative international framework.
Fishing is one of those sectors. The Commission therefore suggests that the present reciprocal access to waters should be preserved until the end of 2021, with a possible agreement in the meantime to replace this transitional provision.
In order to avoid an abrupt interruption of air traffic, it suggests a 6-month measure which would allow British airlines to continue to fly over European territory without landing, to make stopovers in the territory of the Union for purposes other than transport services and also to carry out international passenger and freight services between points in the United Kingdom and points in the EU (without a stopover in the middle).
This measure will be valid if the British allow equivalent solutions for the European aviation sector.
On freight transport and road transport, the Commission explains that, without an agreement by 1 January, the International Transport Forum (ITF) would become the sole legal framework for the provision of services with “strict limits on the number of authorisations, which would not be sufficient for the transport of goods by road between the United Kingdom and the Member States”.
The measures therefore aim, again subject to reciprocity, at maintaining basic road freight connectivity for a maximum of 6 months. The same applies to connectivity for road passenger transport and bus transport. The EU Council has already recently ensured the connectivity of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link (see EUROPE 12614/22).
In any event, the UK's agreement to withdraw from the EU, which entered into force on 1 February, covers aspects relating to citizens' rights as well as the Irish question.
Link to the Commission communication: https://bit.ly/33ZEFi8 (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)