The 27 Heads of State or Government of the Member States will debate for the first time over dinner on Thursday 15 October the European Commission’s recent proposal to increase the EU’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2030 to ‘at least 55%’ below 1990 levels (compared to ‘at least 40%’ at present).
According to a senior European official, the discussion will focus on taking stock of the climate situation, identifying the different sensitivities around the table and seeing what initiatives could be taken, notably to improve the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), in the light of the Commission’s impact assessment (see EUROPE 12562/1).
An agreement on the 2030 objective is therefore not expected at the end of the summit. As provided for in the draft conclusions of the European Council of 12 October (see EUROPE 12580/18), the EU27 should agree to return to the issue at their meeting on 10 and 11 December.
See the draft conclusions: https://bit.ly/33RcDWe
Difficult discussions
The objective is indeed to reach an agreement by the end of the year (see EUROPE 12572/10) in order to present before 2021 the updated national (EU) contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as requested by the Paris Agreement.
The difficulty will lie in how to convince the leaders most dependent on fossil fuels, as any decision by the European Council will be taken unanimously.
Indeed, even if the final formal decision of the Member States on increasing the target for 2030 is adopted by the Environment Ministers according to the qualified majority rule (given that the ‘Climate Law’ containing this target is part of the co-decision procedure), they will have to wait for the green light from the European Council, a European diplomat has told us.
However, some Member States from Central and Eastern Europe had publicly expressed their reservations or even opposition to the Commission proposal (see EUROPE 12563/18).
The Polish Minister for Climate and the Environment, Michał Kurtyka, called in particular for Member State-specific assessments of the impact of a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030.
A request that was judged “impossible” by German State Secretary for the Environment Jochen Flasbarth on Tuesday 13 October at an online conference.
11 Member States support the -55% reduction target
On Wednesday, the leaders of the 11 EU countries – Denmark, Spain, Estonia, Finland, France, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden – called for a -55% target for reducing GHG emissions by 2030 so that the EU can achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
This objective should be reflected in the EU’s contribution to the UNFCCC and translated into legislative proposals “ by June 2021”, they stress, convinced that the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and the European Recovery Plan will give the EU the budgetary means necessary to achieve a socially just climate transition.
As a non-signatory to the declaration, Germany supports the raising of the emission reduction target to 2030.
See the declaration of the 11 countries: https://bit.ly/3k15ng9 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)