On Thursday 11 June, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presented a “cautiously optimistic” risk assessment. In this latest report, the tenth since the start of the pandemic, the Agency notes that Europe is no longer the primary infection area and that the first wave of transmission has begun to decline in most Member States (with the exception of Poland and Sweden).
The director of the ECDC is concerned about a second wave emerging, stating that “the pandemic is not over”, and calling on states to continue their efforts despite the risk of “lockdown fatigue”. He highlighted four key messages: - this is a marathon, not a sprint; - we must not drop our guard; - we all need to adjust to a ‘new normal’; - together, our actions give us the power to control the spread of the virus.
Overall, the ECDC estimates that the risk of Covid-19 in the general population in the EU, the European Economic Area and the UK is “low” in areas where community transmission has been reduced and where extensive testing shows very low detection rates. However, the risk remains “moderate” in areas where transmission is high and where appropriate distancing measures are not in place.
The report shows that Sweden is the only country with a 14-day incidence rate above 100 cases per 100,000 of population. The report does not criticise Sweden, however, and even goes so far as to highlight the responsible behaviour of Swedes in the absence of statutory lockdown measures (in Stockholm, one in two Swedes worked from home during the week beginning 6 April and footfall in retail and leisure spaces decreased by 30%).
At an international level, the proportion of all global Covid-19 cases reported by the EU/EEA and the UK fell from 41% on 23 April to 14% on 9 June. However, despite a slightly higher number of cases than Asia, Europe still has a much higher number of deaths (Asia : 21% of global cases and 9% of deaths; Europe: 22% of cases and 44% of deaths; USA: 53% of cases and 46% of deaths).
With regard to current levels of immunity in the population, the ECDC points out that the information available from sero-epidemiological studies suggests that the adaptive immunity of populations remains low.
To read the report, go to: https://bit.ly/37l8M43 (Original version in French by Sophie Petitjean)