Foreign ministers are expected to discuss Libya, including the monitoring of compliance with the arms embargo by Operation Sophia, at their Council meeting in Brussels on Monday 17 February.
They should therefore discuss the revision of the mandate of Operation EUNAVFORMed Sophia. "We are changing the mandate to adapt it to the emergency situation, the arms embargo, and reassessing the other components (...) the context in which Sophia was deployed is radically different" from the current situation, summarised one diplomat. The interruption of migrant smuggling, for which the mission was originally created, should become a secondary mission.
The European External Action Service (EEAS) will present a paper on Monday to serve as the basis for discussion. According to the Associated Press Agency, it should propose to rename the operation 'Operation EU Active Surveillance', at the request of Italy, which wants to give up the name Sophia, the first name of a little girl born on one of the operation's boats. The EEAS would also advocate the return of the ships, considering that they should be deployed "in the areas most relevant to the implementation of the arms embargo", namely "the eastern part of the area of operation or at least 100 km off the Libyan coast, where the chances of conducting rescue operations are lower". "The rules of engagement will have to be designed to take account of conflicts", the document adds.
"Without air support, it's difficult because the boats don't know where to look, and without boats, it's difficult because the planes see the violations but can't do anything. If you want to increase efficiency, you have to have both", a diplomatic source explained.
While the Member States have already agreed on an increase in air and satellite assets (see EUROPE 12414/11), the return of ships is a matter of debate. Austria, supported by Hungary, opposes it (see EUROPE 12417/17). Several European sources were therefore rather pessimistic about the possibility of an agreement in the Council, hoping instead for a political orientation. "There will be discussions, most likely the need to understand the position of that Member State and, depending on that, we will see whether the discussion should continue or whether there is agreement. Developments between now and then must also be taken into account", explained one source, implying that discussions on this subject would be held at the Munich conference from 14 to 16 February. "The objective is to identify elements on which there is political convergence between Member States, which will allow for the preparation of formal decisions", said another.
Even if this opposition were to be lifted, the question of landing and redistribution of possible migrants recovered at sea - which led to the suspension of the maritime means of the operation last spring - would still arise. However, according to one diplomat, the ships could be placed in areas where boats carrying migrants do not pass. "The routes of arms and migrants are not the same", he added.
The operation has a United Nations mandate to monitor compliance with the embargo in international waters. Surveillance on land or in Libyan territorial waters would require the agreement of the country or the United Nations.
Ministers are also expected to take stock of the political situation in Libya and of ongoing diplomatic action following the adoption of a Security Council resolution at a ministerial meeting to follow up the Berlin conference on 16 February, with further meetings of the 5+5 committee and the inter-Libyan dialogue scheduled in the coming days.
African Union/European Union Relations
Ministers will also have a further exchange of views in order to refine their political orientations for the future comprehensive Strategy with Africa, which the European Commission has made a strategic priority to strengthen and modernise the peer-to-peer partnership. The ministerial reflection was launched in December (see EUROPE 12386/3).
Its results will feed into the joint communication of the Commission and the EEAS 'Towards a comprehensive strategy with Africa', which the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, is due to present on Wednesday 4 March (see EUROPE 12418/15).
The Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen, unveiled the main thrust of the plan in the European Parliament on 11 February in response to an oral question from MEPs (see EUROPE 12424/5). Development Ministers were consulted at an informal lunch hosted by Mr Borrell with the Commissioner on Thursday 13 February.
A meeting of the European Commission and the African Union (AU) will take place on 27 February in Addis Ababa. It will be followed by a joint ministerial meeting in May, before the AU/EU summit scheduled for late October/early November. Recently invited to the dinner of the 33rd African Union Summit, Charles Michel had cited trade, investment and infrastructure (see EUROPE 12422/10) among the EU's priorities.
Lunch with the head of Indian diplomacy
Over lunch, ministers will receive their Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, ahead of the 15th EU-India summit, scheduled for 13 March in Brussels. This meeting should therefore provide an opportunity to discuss trade relations, multilateralism and respect for the rules-based world order, climate change and regional foreign and security policy issues. Europeans could also raise several issues of concern, including the situation in Kashmir (see EUROPE 12330/5) and the Citizenship Act (see EUROPE 12415/13).
A quick look back at the Balkans, the Sahel, the Middle East, Venezuela and Syria
At the beginning of the session, the High Representative should quickly take stock of his latest meetings and visits, in particular to Serbia (see EUROPE 12416/22) and Kosovo (see EUROPE 12415/19), but also to the United States (see EUROPE 12422/7) and the Middle East (Iran and Jordan) see (EUROPE 12417/16, 12418/13).
This would enable the ministers to return quickly to the Middle East peace process, in particular the American "peace plan" (see EUROPE 12418/14), the role of the EU and the question of how to respond to the latest developments on the ground. The Middle East is a divisive issue among the Member States. Two of them opposed a statement on behalf of the 28 with a criticism of the American plan. According to a European source, the Council is expected to return to the subject at greater length in the spring.
Josep Borrell will take stock of ongoing work on the Sahel, the Council having agreed on the need to renew and increase the European commitment to the stabilisation of the region, notably in support of France's efforts. Ministers could also discuss the preparation of the EU/G5 Sahel summit, organised by Charles Michel on Thursday 26 March in Brussels, on the first day of the European Council meeting. "The objective is to advance the integrated strategy for the Sahel, on which we are working hard and which will be ready in the spring", said a senior European official on Thursday 13 February.
According to one source, the subject of the Sahel is the most discussed in the Political and Security Committee at the moment. The ambassadors are working on revising the mandate of the EUTM Mali mission, with the aim of going beyond the training of Malian troops, with accompaniment (see EUROPE 12409/23).
The High Representative is also expected to return to the crisis in Syria, in particular the situation in Idlib, where "escalation requires close monitoring", a European diplomat said.
Venezuela could also be addressed. Ministers could assess the visit of self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó to Europe, take stock of the political process and potentially discuss additional sanctions.
Extension of arms embargoes on Belarus and Zimbabwe
Without debate, ministers are expected to extend sanctions against Belarus for another year, including an arms embargo, a ban on the export of equipment that could be used for internal repression, an assets freeze and a visa ban on four persons linked to the unresolved disappearances of two opposition members in 1999 and 2000.
With regard to Zimbabwe, the Council should extend the arms embargo and the freezing of assets of a defence company for one year and express its full support for the population facing a catastrophic humanitarian situation. In conclusions to be adopted without debate, the Council should express concern about the lack of reforms and the deteriorating humanitarian situation and reiterate its call for rapid economic and political reforms.
Finally, the Council is expected to adopt conclusions on the EU's priorities in UN human rights fora in 2020. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Aminata Niang, with Agathe Cherki)