After three years of high drama, Brexit day itself is set to be low key. And the changes that take place after 31 January will be subtle - but crucial - for future EU-UK relations.
On Friday morning, European Council president Charles Michel and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen signed the EU-UK withdrawal agreement, in a swift and restrained way. Photos of the event released to the press show the two leaders with strained smiles on their faces, flanked by a serious-looking Michel Barnier, the EU’s lead Brexit negotiator. Reporters and cameras were not invited to attend the “extremely short moment”, as Commission spokesman Eric Mamer described it.
It was the symbolic ending of an uneasy political and economic union that lasted almost half a century, and which will usher in a slow but steady number of changes over the next years.
Charles Michel said he was eager to begin what he called a “new chapter” in UK-EU relations. “Things will inevitably change but our friendship will remain,” he tweeted. “We start a new chapter as partners and allies.”
Next week on Wednesday the European Parliament will ratify the Withdrawal agreement after the committee on constitutional affairs did so on Thursday (see EUROPE 12410/6).
Some very visible changes will take place from the 1st of February: 73 UK MEPs and their staff will leave the Parliament (although MEPs will retain their parliamentary immunity until the end of the transition period in December). The Union Jack will no longer fly outside the EU institutions. UK ministers, officials and experts will no longer attend EU meetings, though they may be consulted on draft EU laws that affect them, and invited “exceptionally” and if “necessary” (according to the withdrawal agreement) but they will have no voting rights. No UK military personnel will be allowed to take part in EU missions under the “permanent structured cooperation” (PESCO) provided for in the Lisbon treaty.
However, the UK will continue to be bound by international agreements during the 11-month transition period - made via the World Trade Organization or United Nations – but it won’t be part of any EU negotiating teams or bodies set up to negotiate or implement them. The Court of Justice of the European will have jurisdiction in the UK until the end of the transition period, and for at least four years afterwards if the UK is found to be in breach of any of its obligations under the treaties or the withdrawal agreement.
But some MEPs are not going gentle into that good night. While Brexit supporters in London will be celebrating their “independence day”, Green MEPs Ellie Chowns and Magid Magid are organising parties near Place Luxembourg in Brussels on Thursday. There will be some kind of event at the Grand Place in central Brussels organised by pro-European Brits. The Chapel for Europe near the Parliament is holding a ‘Brexit day service’ to “give thanks for the good over the past five decades” and to “pray for those who work in and with the EU and UK governments”. The S&D group is holding an event on Wednesday “in honour of the hard work” done by UK Labour MEPs over the last 47 years.
After all that, the ceremony will cease and the real work will have to begin.
The Twenty-seven will indeed have to agree rapidly on a mandate for the Commission to negotiate the future bilateral relations, including a trade agreement, during the next eleven months. The Croatian Presidency of the EU Council believes it can be done before the end of February. An extra European summit could be even be called to finalize the mandate. (Sarah Collins)