The UK government is so tied up in legal wrangling over Brexit that the only way out may be to do a deal.
Boris Johnson has said the UK will exit the EU on 31 October “do or die”, and that he’d rather be “dead in a ditch” than ask the bloc for a further extension. But the British prime minister sent more positive signals in Dublin this week, amid hints that the Democratic Unionist Party may be shifting its Brexit red lines (although DUP leader Arlene Foster has rubbished the press reports).
EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier told MEPs on Thursday that the bloc has “no reasons to be optimistic” about doing a deal by 31 October (EUROPE 12326/5). But he said the EU remains open to UK suggestions on how to maintain an open border in Ireland, saying “the ball is clearly in Britain’s court”. MEPs will table a motion on Brexit in Strasbourg next week, which is expected to underline the EU’s concerns on the Irish border and rule out any row back on the ‘level playing field’ protections in the draft withdrawal agreement.
But two major developments on the other side of the Channel have made a ‘no deal’ Brexit difficult, if not impossible: the Extension Act passed by the UK parliament on Monday (mandating a Brexit extension if a deal has not been agreed by 19 October) and a Scottish court ruling that Mr Johnson’s month-long suspension of Parliament was “improper” (EUROPE 12325/24). An appeal will be heard in the supreme court next Tuesday.
Agriculture (and soon-to-be trade) commissioner Phil Hogan, is upbeat, saying this week that “there is a possibility, yet that Mr Johnson may wish to engage with the European Union and come forward with proposals to break this impasse”. He also said the EU would likely grant a Brexit extension, “in the context of an [UK] election”.
Mr Johnson will meet EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker for a working lunch in Luxembourg on 16 September to discuss his options, one of which is the possibility of an all-Ireland agri-food (plus) area, where Northern Ireland would adhere to some EU rules. (The idea falls far short of the existing border backstop in a number of areas, not least healthcare, transport and education).
But there are several reasons why doing a deal would be preferable for the UK prime minister.
First and foremost, Mr Johnson needs a win following a rocky start to his premiership and in view of an impending general election. A crash-out Brexit would do him no favours, especially given the government’s own admission (in its ‘worst case’ Brexit scenario, nicknamed ‘Operation Yellowhammer’), that it could cause fuel, food and medicine shortages and will “will severely disrupt trade”.
The UK has so far failed to do any bilateral or “mini” deals with other EU countries to mitigate the worst impacts of a no-deal Brexit, despite an apparent ramping up of its efforts. France’s Europe minister, Amélie de Montchalin, said this week that British negotiators are trying to strike such deals “on the sly” but that the attempt “totally goes against the spirit that we are negotiating in”.
And the parliamentary arithmetic is not necessarily against the prime minister, says the Eurasia group think-tank. A hung parliament or a Tory majority government are the two most likely outcomes of a general election, the group said in a note on Friday, “but there is still an outside chance that Johnson could forge a Commons majority for a last-minute deal”.
Second, a deal would avoid a further Brexit delay. As Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen told Irish radio on Friday morning, “Boris Johnson would rather resign as Prime Minister than be forced to go against his word and ask for an extension.” And while Bloomberg reports the UK is looking to Hungary for help in preventing a Brexit extension, it’s unclear if Eurosceptic prime minister Viktor Orbán would take such a risk.
Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar told RTE radio’s Morning Ireland programme on Friday that “the gap is very wide” between what the EU and UK want. And talks between UK lead negotiator David Frost and his EU counterparts this week have not yielded any major breakthroughs.
So while there are reasons to be hopeful, the reality is that nobody knows what will happen between now and 31 October.
Sarah Collins