On Monday 15 July, Foreign Ministers will meet in Brussels for their last meeting before the summer holidays and they will have their work cut out for them: "It is one of the busiest agendas in a long time", acknowledged a European source.
Thus, the ministers will discuss the latest developments concerning Iran, the situation in Iraq, a new CSDP civilian mission in the Central African Republic, Turkey's illegal drilling activities in Cypriot waters, external aspects of migration and lunch with their Moldovan counterpart.
Iran. Ministers will discuss the latest developments, including the nuclear programme, but also tensions in the Persian Gulf region, which could lead to a military escalation. On Friday 12 July, the British announced the sending of a second warship to the Gulf.
Tehran has begun to enrich its uranium beyond the authorized limit of 3.67% and to increase its uranium stockpile beyond the 300 kilograms approved in the JCPOA (see EUROPE 12286/7), in retaliation for US sanctions. While Europeans are urging Tehran to comply with the international agreement, they have not yet decided to reimpose sanctions. Nor is it the objective of the Europeans to trigger Article 36 of the Agreement, which concerns a conflict resolution mechanism. "You have to keep a cool head. Iran's measures are not irreversible at this stage, as Iran has calibrated them to avoid going too fast", a diplomatic source said.
For the time being, Europeans continue to conduct their diplomatic activities and set up the Instex debt securitisation fund, which aims to circumvent US sanctions. According to one diplomat, the aim of the discussion is to keep the unity of the Twenty-eight behind the members of E3 (Germany, France and the United Kingdom) and the High Representative, to push all Member States to join Instex, to call for the easing of tensions in the region and to maintain maritime freedom.
In addition, while the E3 Foreign Ministers urged the establishment of a new Joint Committee at ministerial level, for the time being no date has been decided, according to several sources.
Iraq. While the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy will be in Baghdad on 13 July, the Foreign Affairs Council will discuss the situation in Iraq and is expected to adopt conclusions. "The situation is quite mixed" in Iraq, explained a diplomatic source, who pointed out that, even if the formation of the government is progressing, much remains to be done, especially with regard to the fight against corruption and reconstruction. In their conclusions, ministers could call for the implementation of reforms, in particular to ensure security, basic services and sustainable employment (see EUROPE 12226/29). In October 2017, the EU set up an advisory mission (EUAM Iraq) to assist in the implementation of the civilian aspects of the security sector (see EUROPE 11884/3).
CAR. Ministers will discuss the security situation in the Central African Republic (CAR), which remains complicated despite the peace agreements signed in February. They will discuss ways in which the EU could further strengthen its support.
The ministers could therefore give their political approval for the creation of a new CSDP mission in CAR. This "small civilian" advisory mission could help the Ministry of the Interior to structure itself better and to carry out the primary sovereign functions. This would provide a trained and capable police force, while most crimes committed on the ground are the responsibility of the domestic forces, several sources said. According to one of them, the objective will be to launch the mission before the end of the year. It would complement the EU's EUTM CAR military training mission, which provides training and advice to the Central African Armed Forces (FACA).
Ministers could quickly return to the situation in the Sahel, after the meeting between Mrs Mogherini and the G5 Sahel ministers on 9 July in Ouagadougou (see EUROPE 12293/13), and on Sudan, where the Finnish Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, has just made a visit on behalf of the High Representative. The High Representative could also revisit a failed coup d'état in Ethiopia.
Turkey. The Foreign Affairs Council will discuss rapidly, and then the ministers could adopt conclusions denouncing Turkey's illegal activities in Cypriot waters and expressing their solidarity with Nicosia. Discussions are ongoing regarding the adoption of possible retaliatory measures against Turkish actions (see EUROPE 12293/11). "The objective is to adopt something, to come out with something concrete", said a European source.
According to several sources, the Foreign Affairs Council could decide to suspend high-level meetings between Europeans and Turks, while keeping communication channels open. A diplomatic source clarified that the Twenty-eight were not talking about sanctions as such at the moment, but that they were not excluded at one time or another and directed against those responsible for drilling.
External aspects of migration. While the situation of migrants in Libya continues to deteriorate (see EUROPE 12294/14) and each arrival of NGO ships with migrants in Europe brings European solidarity into play, the Foreign Affairs Council should review the external aspects of migration, at the request of Italy and Malta. According to one diplomat, the discussion could be part of a "relatively broad" framework: how to increase the capacities of third States, how to strengthen the role of the Libyan coastguard, how to work more effectively by giving more resources to IOM and UNHCR, particularly in Libya, or how to address the issue of returns. The debate could also allow ministers to review the situation of Operation EUNAVFOR Med Sophia, whose mandate runs until 30 September and which currently no longer has any naval resources. The subject of migration will be discussed at the informal meeting of Home Affairs Ministers in Helsinki on 18 July.
Moldova. After adopting conclusions on Moldova (see EUROPE 12276/3) at their June Council, Ministers will receive their Moldovan counterpart, Nicolae Popescu, at lunch. In recent weeks, the country has experienced a political crisis that has resulted in the arrival of a new coalition government with pro-European and pro-Russian forces. The discussion should therefore enable the Foreign Affairs Council to express its support and expectations, particularly in terms of reforms.
Other topics. Quickly, under the item "current issues", the heads of diplomacy could return to the situation in Venezuela, after the first visit to the country of Enrique Iglesias, the High Representative's Special Adviser (see EUROPE 12265/14). Mrs Mogherini could also return to the last EU-Ukraine summit and delegations could raise the issue of the Russian delegation's return to the Council of Europe.
In addition, the Foreign Affairs Council could extend the autonomous sanctions against North Korea for one year. 57 individuals and 9 entities are sanctioned autonomously by the EU. It has also transposed the relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions, which impose sanctions on 80 individuals and 75 entities. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Martin Molko)